The more the regime in Russia cracks down on protests, the more repressive it must become to stop further protests, says Derek Hutcheson.
– The more it needs to win elections to demonstrate its popularity, the more it becomes dependent on mobilizing a narrow base of supporters and demobilizing the rest. The more it tries to control the electoral process, the more the legitimacy of its electoral victories is questioned.
Many in the elite are also over 70 years old, so at some point there will be a natural generational change – although it may take time, says Derek Hutcheson, who in a new article examines the last 35 years of political elections in Russia, from the end of the Soviet Union to the present day .
Romanticized 1990s
According to Hutcheson, the somewhat romanticized democratic progress in Russia during the 1990s has been replaced by a predictable political system in the 21st century. Resistance is crushed. The challengers in the presidential election pose no threat and are controlled within the system. Real opposition takes place on the margins and does not reach out.
After the chaos of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin managed to gain the support of the electorate by creating stability and a better economy. He also gained traction for his message that the West has humiliated Russia and that Russia must therefore be re-established as a rightful great power. Step by step, pluralism in the country was dismantled.
Increasingly difficult with the facade outwards
From Putin’s perspective, the tactic has been successful for a couple of decades. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a balance between control and in any case a facade of diversity and democracy, Derek Hutcheson believes.
In 2012, the law on “foreign agents” was introduced, which refers to organizations that receive funding from abroad. The number of organizations that the regime annually adds to the list of “foreign agents” and “undesirable organizations” is constantly increasing. In 2023, the number amounted to 283.
– The system will rely on tools such as repression, forced mobilization, apathetic voters and heavy punishment of non-parliamentary opponents like Navalny, says Derek Hutcheson.
The now-dead Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow six months ago was an indication that even Putin does not have the system under complete control.
The economy is a war economy
The war has somewhat stabilized the regime, but there are signs of stagnation rather than stability which may eventually become a problem. The economy rests on a war economy, says Derek Hutcheson. The question is what happens to the economy when the war ends.
So far, the population generally buys the story that Russian soldiers are heroes who fight for the fatherland, he believes. People do not want to believe that their sons must have died in vain.
– The question is when the elite discover that Putin is no longer the best card to bet on to maintain this power.
China is becoming more of a partner
For the Kremlin, according to Derek Hutcheson, there is a risk in counting on ever-greater profits from an ever-shrinking supporter base, at the expense of renewal. However, there are many uncertainty factors for the future. The outcome of the US presidential election is a factor. Another is the Brics group with Russia and nine other countries whose stated purpose is to provide a counterpoint to the economic dominance of Western countries.
– China is becoming more and more of a partner. This is a bigger geopolitical discussion than just Russia. Russia is not isolated, says Derek Hutcheson.
Scientific article:
Russian Electoral Engineering from Perestroika to PutinMalmö University
Contact:
Derek Hutcheson, professor of political science, Malmö University
derek.hutcheson@mau.se