Increased air capacity in Central and West Africa in 2022

At the time of the balance sheets, the OAG aviation consultant analyzed the air capacities for the year 2022. With good news in the first place. Last year, the global capacity calculated in airline seats jumped by just over 30% compared to 2021. And by 47.4% compared to 2020. An analysis that confirms in particular the estimates of the International Airlines Association and World Airports Council.

A number of seats still lower than the overall one in 2019

However, if we compare the figures from 2022 to 2019, we see that seat capacity is still lower than it was in 2019. The OAG found 4.74 billion available seats last year. In 2019 we had reached 5.77 billion places at the end of December. The missing billion corresponds to a deficit of almost 18% from the 2019 level. OAG notes, however, that this difference narrowed in the second half of the year with a small decline of between 13 and 15%.

Four regions are the big winners for the year 2022, with an offer higher than that of 2019. The champion in all categories for the year 2022 is indeed Central and West Africa. Seat capacity in the region increased by 9.7% compared to 2019. Central Asia ranked second with growth of 7.2%, followed by Central and South America (Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname and Venezuela) with a growth of seats of 5.9% each, compared to 2019.

Conversely, the Asian continent continued in 2022 to record the weakest rebound in its air capacity. Southeast Asia remains at -35.6% and Northeast Asia at -27.7%. A situation due to a slow reopening of the borders, the latest those of China. Only the Indian subcontinent will fare well with seating capacity only 5.9% lower than in 2019.

Excluding Asia, Southern Africa remains well below its pre-Covid capabilities. With capacity down 33.9% from 2019 as a result of the collapse of air traffic in South Africa, with the bankruptcy of South African Airways in 2020. The company has resumed flights but with an extremely truncated network and without intercontinental connections… Other regions particularly affected: Oceania at -25.5% compared to 2019 and Central-Eastern Europe. With 22.2% fewer seats than in 2019, the region is paying dearly for the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Among the regions that will have experienced a relatively favorable year, North Africa should be noted, whose capacity at the end of 2022 was only 8.1% lower than in 2019. Likewise North America, down by 8.6%. In this semi-continent, air capacity was favorably influenced by the good performance of national and international traffic with the United States (-7.2%) and by the very strong increase in capacity towards Mexico (+10%).

It should be noted that in the Middle East, the supply of seats is still more than 15% lower than before the Covid.

Western Europe in halftone

In Western Europe, the recovery was very strong in 2022. Compared to 2021, capacity expressed in seats increased by 76.2% compared to 2021. This is the strongest growth of the year with Southeast Asia.

However, air capacity still remains 16.6% lower than in 2019. Rising energy prices with high inflation are a factor in this softer recovery. Above all, the difficulties in recruiting personnel have forced, for example, airlines and airports to limit the growth of supply.

Mediterranean Europe recorded the best performances. Seat capacity with Spain decreased by 8.2% compared to 2019 and with Italy by 10.3%. France does a little better than the average with a 15.6% drop in capacity/seats.

Germany, on the other hand, appears to be the most depressed European market. Air capacity is still a third lower than 2019 figures. A situation due to a sharp decline in the domestic air market across the Rhine. The recovery is also sluggish in the UK. Air capacity is still more than 20% lower than before Covid and… Brexit!

In 2023 the reopening of China should finally revive supply in Asia, Oceania and also in the Middle East. While Western Europe and North America should definitively end the Covid parenthesis…