The mathematician analyzed the war in Ukraine
Mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov analyzed the war in Ukraine. Here is what he wrote on his personal Facebook profile about the situation on March 2:
March 2, 2023 War Brief
STRICTLY FORBIDDEN READING BY NURSE. HARMFUL FOR THEIR HEALTH.
Here is a place for technical analysis, not for casting feelings. Good analysis requires coolness, not emotional outpouring. Sober judgment has come upon Bismarck’s thought that we must look after our national interest. The national interest in exactly two and a half words, I explained it to you: benefits for the people. So, we look at this war and always ask ourselves: What is the benefit to us from this?
We follow the slow processes, and in sequence. Because it is the slow processes that will determine the outcome of the war. Wars are slow-moving, not like a Hollywood movie. The slow progress is a consequence of the speed with which the logistics processes proceed. And by looking at the logistics, you can get a good idea of what goes where.
Are you reading this you morons who have ignored the above ban. Today I bombarded you with huge formulas on the issue of the analysis of the pandemic (see the other post – about the pandemic, there is the link to the relevant articles authored by the sinister professor). When I decide, I will cut you off for the war as well. I also have publications on the mathematical theory of war. But Jurdek does not read – Jurdek croaks. That is why it is regularly cut.
Such as
Process 1: Ukraine’s systems and the supply of the Ukrainian military. There are no changes. Ukraine is hooked on systems and inflows as much as implementing the strategy of the last Russian killing the last Ukrainian in a conventional war. It doesn’t flow anymore that a nuclear war will start. Everything is well calculated from the point of view of American interests. Americans can count and will take theirs. And the Russians will get theirs. What will we take? Nothing. We are seen as a pitiful donor of weapons and as an even more pitiful donor of cannon fodder when the Ukrainian one is over.
Process 2: The logistics of the Russian army. Are the rockets finished – no. Did they run out of shells – no. Well then, things continue as before. That is, continued artillery superiority of the Russian army and concomitant heavy losses in manpower of the Ukrainian army. Are you reading what the Ukrainian soldiers are screaming in Bakhmut? Read, read.
Process 3: The numerical composition of the Ukrainian army. This process is not going well. Mobilization reserves in Ukraine are running out. We’re going to gather silices for a raid. You have to, or the systems will be shut down. Westerners are practical – when they see that there is no more cannon fodder, they will shake hands with Russia and divide Ukraine. Benefits for us? Carps swinging on the hooks and roaches croaking, wildly hating everything around.
Process 4: Infrastructure Status. Ukrainian infrastructure continues to go to hell. Russian is not affected. The Russian economy is successfully coping with all kinds of sanctions. The Ukrainian one – if the systems are stopped, it will crash immediately. So the infusion of tens of billions must continue. How long? As long as there is cannon fodder for the front.
There is no cannon fodder, no riots, there is no way to justify the tens of billions we are pouring into them. Ruined infrastructure, crappy economy. For there to be a Ukrainian victory, the Russian infrastructure and economy must be further destroyed. Think with your heads so you don’t get kicked by the aces
Process 5: The suprathreshold shock. And today there is none. We are watching the series “The Threshold”. The Russians are trying to take it down, the Americans are trying to keep it high enough, but not so high that Russia uses a nuclear weapon. To keep the threshold relatively high, Ukrainian soldiers are marched every day. Let’s think pragmatically. There will be soldiers for the spring. There will be for the summer as well. What about after? Then autumn comes with the fall Ukrainian rush. The logistics clearly indicate where the rush will be. Do you know how many degrees are pi radians?
Process 6: Substantial movements on the fronts. Bakhmut is slowly surrounded. Mariinka – also. Along Ugledar, the Ukrainian army strengthened the situation. However, the reserves were insufficient to hold the front and it slowly moved west. There are no changes here.
Process 7: The Ideological Struggle. Things are quite calm in Russia, the situation at the front is favorable at the moment, there are no conditions for mass disturbances.
The problems are with the Ukrainians. We begin to prepare the ground for the fall of Bakhmut. The Americans said a long time ago – hey, Ukrainians, don’t feed the frogs at Bakhmut, withdraw. No, no. An encirclement of more than one Ukrainian division at Bakhmut was outlined. The slaughterhouse will be terrible. I don’t know how the Ukrainian generals think, but from an ideological and propaganda point of view, the pogrom will be huge.
Process 8: Propaganda in our country. The full grief continues. Che and mourning. There is no subtle national propaganda. The Ukrainian one is left to be. And she is a complete amateur. The American one is left to be cast. But she has people who don’t even know where Ukraine is. The Bulgarian is much more knowledgeable because Ukraine is right under his nose.
And Vitanov says – fix your propaganda, look at things realistically. But how to look at things realistically a carp, caught on the bare hook. The hook stings him and he screams because what he got the hook for is not happening. And of course – someone else must be to blame for the Bulgarian carp. Who – Vitanov, of course. Because Vitanov tells him – don’t be a carp, get off the hook, look at things realistically.
We drive on
Political Science – (Day 101)
We continue with the spectacular figure of the political leader. From today we start running around the corners to find out who sees how the figure of the political leader.
Well, so far we have clarified that the leader is an authoritative member of some group (generally speaking), whose personal influence allows him to play an essential role in socio-political situations and regulation of relationships in the group (collective). So for there to be a leader, there must be a group. Yurdechy de Charan cannot sit on the couch in front of the mirror and dream: “I’m a leader, I’m a–and–ider!”. Well, you’re not. Being alone, you can only lead your rear end to the toilet (let’s say it in the vernacular).
A group, a group must have. And if there is, you must have authority. But even that is not enough. There are many authorities in the group, but only some of them play a significant role in the processes. The other authorities play an insignificant role in the processes. If there is a group, there is stratification. And the leader comes out and says: “There is no such thing, we are all equal.” Well, you are all equal, but some are more equal than others, let a person who has been writing many signs of equality (and inequality) every day for dozens of years tell you.
In ancient times, kings and generals were considered leaders. There are some heroes here, but it is good that the hero is a direct relative of Zeus, for example, otherwise he may not get into the annals, but will leak into the channels of history. We flip from antiquity through the Middle Ages and stop where? At Uncle Marx’s. Now I’m going to pester you again because at one time in Germany they made me read Marx and Hegel in the original. It was a living horror, but I survived. Marx looks at the leader from the class angle. The leader represents the interests of the respective class.
People make history, Uncle Marx tells us, but the motives for their actions are caused by the material life of society, and above all by that part of it called the economic life of society. In the vernacular, Uncle Marx tells us nothing else but – interest shakes his fez. The economic interest, shakes the fez of the action to and fro. Individuals must also maintain and regulate as much as they can the waving of the fez. Some adjust the sway skillfully and are great leaders. Others – not so skillfully and are not such great leaders.
Interesting huh! Uncle Marx is always interesting, especially if you’ve read it in the original and you’ve grasped this and that. We stop for today. Tomorrow – the other uncles. For example, Uncle Max Weber. But who is he now? Ah-ah-ah-ah-ah, nobody, nobody, the neighbor, where once in Germany we used to drink beer in the pub with him. Jurdek people feel that I am making a fool of them, but because Jurdek is a writer, Jurdek is not a reader, something is unclear to them. The Bavarian beer that Vitanov drinks is good, Sancho – said Don Quixote. But she and the Belgian one are not bad at all, Your Grace – answers Sancho. And so goes life.
Come on, that’s enough for today. Tomorrow – more.
Following is some demographics from the booklet
VITANOV, POPULATION DYNAMICS AND NATIONAL SECURITY, 2005 (day 57)
… Stationary population makes it easier to raise the standard of living, but only on one condition, namely, that the growth of resources and consumption actually takes place…
I’m quoting, well, I’m quoting the cursed Vitanov from the above book.
Yes, but Vitanov took that quote from somewhere. From where? Well, it’s written in English pubs. Oh wait, it wasn’t in the pubs, but in one man’s books that poor young Vitanov had to read after Marx to understand how the capitalist economy works. Bah-ah-ah, Vitanov, you wouldn’t have studied the Austrian school, would you? I’ve read them, well, I’ve read them, but later.
Good old England still has it, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire no longer has it. And as befits one, one reads Grandfather John Maynard Keynes first. Who is he, Vitanov? Ah, no one, no one, the grandpa with the puppy we had tea with at the pub in Cambridge. Who-o-o-o, have you had tea? Sersem with sersem. Why don’t you drink English beer? Ahhh, English beer is nice too, your grace, I agree.
So what does Grandpa Keynes tell us. A population not growing is not bad (stationary means that the population is not decreasing, but these are complicated words that are only used in the circles of Cambridge, not here), as long as the resources are growing. For that, there must be no significant wars, Grandfather Keynes says. Uh-uh-uh-uh, what can we say here now. I think the donkey will be kicked again.
And consumption must grow, says Grandfather Keynes. And here’s the donkey between the ates. On one side – war, on the other – contraction of consumption. Well, Grandpa Keynes shrugs, the donkey is going to get kicked. Again. And what else does Grandpa Keynes say about it. The population may not grow, said Grandfather Keynes, but governments should not defeat the people with their governance.
Whoah, whoah, whoah, this way, Grandpa Keynes. Kellner, give me a Hayek, that Keynes gave us heartburn. And a piece of grilled von Mises pastille, medium rare, and for dessert a piece of Miltonfriedmanka cake seasoned with Petrovo noise. What about the noise from Petrovo? I don’t know, that’s the recipe.
As you can see, Grandpa Cates can quickly cause heartburn. Australians, well, English. Just like Grandpa Malthus and Grandpa Darwin. Grandfathers. Why does Vitanov respect these Englishmen so much? He’s messed something up, your grace, he’s read a lot of books, and this is harmful – Sancho joined in.
Enough for today. I wish you health and success and may war and viruses stay away from you.
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