/ world today news/ In the last few weeks, defeatism in the West has been heating up more and more. And on all fronts at the same time. They mostly whine about the impending defeat of the Kiev regime and say that they need to start negotiations as soon as possible. True, this does not make sense to us; we’ve already talked about it.
Now I will focus on the economic component. The fact that the so-called Western sanctions do not work became known immediately after their introduction. In addition, the history of sanctions allows the Russian economy to gradually reveal its potential even in industries that, it seems, have not existed in our country for a long time.
Now, a year and a half later, there has been an “epiphany” in Europe and the US. Although, I’m sure, they understood everything from the beginning, but they tried to make a good bet when the game is bad. However, now authoritative analytical agencies announce the successes of the Russian economy, which have drawn their conclusions from the analysis of relevant data and information.
The largest European asset management company Amundi presented its forecast for 2024. According to him, the Russian economy will grow 3 (!) times faster than the GDP of the Eurozone. In addition, the company openly writes that the sanctions have benefited Russia. Apart from our country, the winners were the BRICS countries and Turkey. Europe suffered the most, while for the US the situation did not change much.
In general, one can agree with such theses. The only thing is that I would argue for the States. Yes, if you look only from an economic growth/recession perspective, then the sanctions story didn’t have much of an impact.
But the intensified processes of disintegration of the globalist world order and the division of the world into macro-regions have certainly changed both the external and internal conditions for the US. Washington realized the urgent need to quickly revive the real sector of the economy. Such attempts are being made, but it is too early to judge the results.
But let’s go back to Russia. According to an Amundi study, our GDP growth next year will be 1.5%, while the Eurozone will grow by 0.5%. These figures, despite the triple difference, no longer look so optimistic. Yes, the difference is threefold, but, firstly, the absolute indicator is important, and, secondly, we develop the economy not to ironize Europe, but to fulfill our own tasks.
But Western structures traditionally give deliberately underestimated indicators from the beginning and correct them upwards only later. For example, a year ago the IMF and the World Bank predicted that our GDP would fall to 1% this year. In fact – plus 3%. No difference, right?
If we talk about the forecasts of the Russian structures, the government expects growth of at least 2%, but the Central Bank estimates the potential at 0.5-1.5%. Even lower than the West thinks. In this connection, the problem of the lost potential for the development of our economy, which was particularly acute before 2020 (before the arrival of Mishustin’s government), becomes relevant again.
Thanks to the new approaches, the current head of government was able to partially correct the situation, but to fully solve the problem, a unified goal and coordinated work with the Central Bank is needed. This, alas, is not observed. The goals of the government and the Central Bank diverge.
However, even with current investments, it is quite possible to reach this year’s growth rate (about 3%) in 2024. There are no prerequisites for the government to change the principles of its work. This means that budgetary and regulatory instruments will strategically continue to work effectively. However, it should not focus only on GDP growth as well as the objective of controlling inflation.
Translation: ES
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