According to webmd.com, Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University and colleagues estimated the total number of infections by simulating the spread of coronavirus in all 3,142 counties in the United States. The simulation showed that over a hundred million people in the United States became infected last year. According to official figures, only 19.6 million Americans have been infected.
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The study also showed huge differences in the number of diseases and deaths in individual US states, and even in individual districts, and these differences allegedly persist. At the same time, Shaman pointed out that infection mortality had more than doubled last year, from 0.77 percent in April 2020 to 0.31 percent in December of the same year. According to the study’s authors, this may be related to improved diagnosis and treatment, better patient care and also a reduction in the severity of the disease.
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However, the covid mortality rate was almost four times higher than the estimated influenza mortality rate (0.0076 percent during the 2009 flu epidemic). Joe Gerald, program director of public health management at the University of Arizona in Tucson, described this as evidence that covid-19 is much more dangerous than the flu and that a sharp response to it was appropriate.
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Persistent threat
According to Jill Foster of the Medical School of the University of Minnesota at the University of Minneapolis, the study also shows that “in the case of covid-19, we are nowhere near collective immunity – if there is such a thing in the case of SARS-CoV-2.”
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According to her, the numbers warn that covid should be considered a constant threat. “We need to realize that covid-19 infections are smoldering and occurring regularly throughout the country. It varies according to geographical location and seasons in a way that is difficult to predict, except that there are probably more diseases at a given moment than we can detect, “she said.
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Another hundred thousand victims this year?
From now until the end of the year, up to one hundred thousand US residents may die of covid. According to CBS, this follows from the most watched forecasting model in the country. Health experts say that this number can be halved if almost everyone wears veils in public.
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The Washington University model assumes that 98,000 Americans will die of covid by the beginning of December, bringing the total number of victims to nearly 730,000. According to this forecast, the number of deaths will increase to almost 1,400 per day by mid-September and then will slowly decrease. The disease now requires an average of 1,100 deaths a day, roughly as many as during March.
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“We can save fifty thousand lives just by wearing veils. That’s how important behavior is, “said Ali Mokdad, a professor of medical measurements at the University of Washington in Seattle.
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“The behavior of (people) will determine whether, when and to what extent the current wave will permanently fall. We can’t stop Delta from developing, but we can change our behavior overnight, ”said Lauren Ancel Meyers, head of the covid-19 pandemic modeling association at the University of Texas.
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According to her, it is necessary to double the use of veils, reduce social gatherings, stay at home in case of illness and get vaccinated.
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