In the second round of the 2020 municipal elections, record abstention and environmental breakthrough

The dominant lesson of the second round of the municipal elections, which was held on Sunday June 28, is first of all the new decline in participation. As feared by the estimates of polling institutes, a new abstention record was recorded: 58.4%, according to official figures from the Ministry of the Interior, or nearly 4 points more than in the first round, on March 15, and more than 20 points more than the second round of the 2014 municipal elections.

Fifteen weeks after the first round, which took place when the Covid-19 epidemic was increasing in intensity and the government was preparing to put the country in containment, this second round, in conditions of health security a priori more favorable, failed to bring voters back to the polls. The question is to know if fear is the main engine of this disaffection or if this collapse of the civic and democratic act consisting in electing its representatives – which is more at the first level of proximity – does not mark a collapse of democracy.

In many cities, more than three quarters of voters did not bother to vote, as in Roubaix (North) with 77.25% abstention. Thus, the mayor (various centers), Guillaume Delbar, reelected with 56.21% of the votes, only represents 12.3% of those registered. Or in Vitry-sur-Seine (Val-de-Marne), 77.39% abstention. There, the outgoing Communist mayor, Jean-Claude Kennedy, with his 49.87% obtained in a triangular, will be able to claim barely 10.9% of those registered, or one in ten voters.

Of course, these municipal elections will have been held in extraordinary circumstances. Of course, again, the epidemic which destabilized the country, caused nearly 30,000 deaths, led to economic and social collapse, has relegated institutional concerns to the background. In the long term, we will also observe a slow and continual erosion of electoral participation, from 79.7% of those registered in the second round of the 1983 municipal elections to 62.1% in 2014.

Of course, finally, abstention in the second round is traditionally slightly higher than in the first. Because those who voted in the first round for lists eliminated from the second do not necessarily go to another. And also because the second round concerns most of the medium and large towns, where participation is, in general, less strong than in the small towns. But that will not erase the fact that, when barely four out of ten voters move to choose their mayor, the latter’s legitimacy will necessarily be weakened. And what remains, at bottom, the bitter feeling that a growing part of the population is turning away from representative democracy. The democratic crisis seems to have reached an acme.

Almost full box for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts

In the wake of the 2019 European elections, environmentalists had hopes of conquest in several large cities. The first round had only whetted their appetites. They got their fill. Thus they seize the two largest agglomerations of the country after Paris. In Marseille, with the Marseille Spring, supported by a large arc of forces, the ecologist Michèle Rubirola (39.9%) is ahead of Martine Vassal (Les Républicains, LR, 29.8%) by more than 13,000 votes. The president of the departmental council and of the metropolis is even preceded by a novice, Olivia Fortin, in the 4^e sector, where it presented itself.

The most spectacular victory for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV) concerns Lyon. Despite the alliance concluded between the two rounds between the late Baron Gérard Collomb and LR, Grégory Doucet wins hands down. With 52.4% of the vote and victory in seven of the nine arrondissements of the capital of the Gauls, he offered his running mate 51 of the 73 seats of the central municipal council of Lyon. In addition, EELV offers itself the luxury of bringing Bruno Bernard to the presidency of the metropolis.

The most surprising conquest is nonetheless Bordeaux where Pierre Hurmic, with 46.48% of the vote, is ahead of the outgoing mayor, Nicolas Florian. Despite the alliance concluded between the two towers with Thomas Cazenave (LRM), the successor of Alain Juppé won only 44.12% of the vote, thus signing the end of a reign of the right over the city of Gironde uninterrupted since the Release. A surprise for EELV.

If Eric Piolle, in Grenoble, easily finds the seat he won in 2014, other victories come to fill the purse of EELV. Thus, that of Jeanne Barseghian in Strasbourg, again facing an LR-LRM alliance and the former socialist mayor Catherine Trautmann. Or Emmanuel Denis in Tours, facing the outgoing mayor Christophe Bouchet (Radical movement, MR). And Anne Vignot in Besançon, Léonore Moncond’huy in Poitiers, in front of the outgoing socialist mayor Alain Claeys, Patrick Chaimovitch, who snatches the town hall of Colombes (Hauts-de-Seine) from Nicole Goueta (LR), or Jean-Marc Defrémont in Savigny-sur-Orge (Essonne) facing another LR, Eric Mehlhorn.

In Lille and Toulouse, the outgoing mayors trembled to the end. In the capital of Flanders, it was played for nothing: 227 votes. Martine Aubry, who was preceded by the EELV candidate, Stéphane Baly, in Lille intramural, owed her salvation only to the voices brought to her by the associated municipality of Lomme. In Toulouse, the outgoing mayor Jean-Luc Moudenc (LR, supported by LRM) still managed to extricate himself from a compromised situation. With these two exceptions, the box was almost full for environmentalists.

Rout for the Republic on the march and its allies

The failure of Agnès Buzyn in Paris symbolizes the debacle suffered by the Macronist party during this municipal election, resulting in its downfall many of its allies of circumstance and mayors, from other formations, to whom he had brought his support. The victory of Edouard Philippe in Le Havre (Seine-Maritime), against the Communist Jean-Paul Lecoq, cannot be misled: the cat is thin. And the very rare satisfactions, if we except the re-election of François Bayrou (MoDem) in Pau. The succession of Jean-Louis Fousseret, in Besançon, turned into a disaster. In Annecy, Jean-Luc Rigaut (UDI) bowed 27 votes to an environmental candidate, François Astorg. Lost, too, Biarritz (Pyrénées-Atlantiques), Montélimar (Drôme), Bourges (Cher), Tours, Nancy, Laval, Fleury-les-Aubrais (Loiret), Alençon, Quimper, Noyon (Oise), Bobigny, Noisy-le -Sec, Saint-Ouen (Seine-Saint-Denis)…

The Socialist Party finds its colors

The Socialist Party does not have to be ashamed of its course. After the severe defeat he suffered in 2014, he manages to preserve, even consolidate, most of its flagship town halls, such as Paris, Nantes, Rennes, Clermont-Ferrand, Rouen, Le Mans, Brest (Finistère), Villeurbanne (Rhône), Avignon, Créteil (Val-de-Marne), in most cases in alliance with EELV, even if this has not always been the case, as in Lille or Dijon.

In addition, there were some significant successes, foremost among which was the victory won in Montpellier by Michaël Delafosse at the expense of Philippe Saurel (various left). Prestigious victories, also, in Nancy, for Mathieu Klein, against the outgoing mayor Laurent Hénart (MR), and for Mathieu Hanotin in Saint-Denis (Seine-Saint-Denis), which puts an end to the communist reign since the Liberation on this large city in the Parisian suburbs.

Among the other winners under the pink coat, Yann Galut in Bourges, Delphine Labails in Périgueux, Jean-Paul Vermot in Morlaix (Finistère), Isabelle Assih in Quimper, Hervé Guihard in Saint-Brieuc (Côtes-d’Armor), Thierry Repentin in Chambéry, Carole Canette in Fleury-les-Aubrais (Loiret) or Frédéric Bouche in Villeparisis (Seine-et-Marne).

A victory, really, for The Republicans?

Admittedly, the party led by Christian Jacob started from very high after the tidal wave of 2014. But can it really claim a victory when several of its main strongholds, starting with Marseille and Bordeaux, change tack ? As usual, for lack of reserves, LR struggled to cross the bar in the second round to consolidate its results in the first. With rare exceptions, such as François Grosdidier in Metz or Serge Grouard in Orléans, who takes over the keys to the city from the one to whom he had passed them in 2015 but who had come a little too close to the current majority, little significant conquests in metropolises.

Some successes, such as Hervé Granier in Gardanne (Bouches-du-Rhône), Nathalie Biscais in La Seyne-sur-Mer (Var) or Jérémie Bréaud in Bron (Rhône). But also a lot of losses, such as Quimper, Périgueux, Moissac, Chambéry, Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire, Savigny-sur-Orge, Villeparisis, Corbeil-Essonnes, Colombes, Dugny, Rosny-sous-Bois, Châtillon. Among Les Républicains, many are careful not to claim victory too quickly.

The disappointments of the Communist Party

The Communist Party had set itself the objective of retaking Bobigny; goal achieved. For good measure, he also takes over Noisy-le-Sec, in the same department of Seine-Saint-Denis, recovers Villejuif and takes Corbeil-Essonnes – the former stronghold of Serge Dassault – from LR. But many of its historic strongholds are leaving its fold. Of which the most symbolic, Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, near Tours, the first town hall to have become communist, in 1920. Lost, also, Saint-Denis, Aubervilliers, Villeneuve-Saint-Georges, Champigny-sur-Marne, Choisy-le-Roi, Arles, Gardanne, Seclin, Waziers… “A contrasting record”, title Humanity. Yes, to say the least.

A swallow makes the spring of the National Gathering

For the National Rally (RN), the salute passed through Perpignan. The success achieved by Louis Aliot allows him to post a good catch, the first in a city of more than 100,000 inhabitants, and not to return empty-handed from his municipal campaign. Because, apart from the Catalan city, not much to eat for the far right party. Two meager successes in Bruay-la-Buissière (Pas-de-Calais) and Moissac (Tarn-et-Garonne). The Lepéniste formation even loses two of the municipalities conquered in 2014: Le Luc (Var) and Mantes-la-Ville (Yvelines), while Senator Stéphane Ravier was defeated in the 7^e sector of Marseille, where he won in 2014. Not enough to roll mechanics. The RN has failed to expand its local presence.

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