In the past three months, the RMB has appreciated significantly, and foreign capital has poured in. Institutions: the current A-shares have a high allocation value
News from the Financial Associated Press on January 21 (edited by Lu Lu)At the end of last year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar ended the depreciation trend that lasted for more than half a year. Since November 2022, the RMB exchange rate has performed strongly and has appreciated sharply. USD/RMB (offshore) has fallen by more than 7% from the highest of 7.37475.
In the past three months, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have also ushered in a sharp rebound against the background of the appreciation of the renminbi, especially Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index has risen by 50% since November 1 last year. In terms of A-shares, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has increased by 5.68% this year, and the ChiNext Index has increased by more than 10% this year. And behind the surge,The continuous influx of foreign capital may be an important factor driving up Hong Kong stocks and A shares.
After entering 2023, in less than a month, northbound funds have poured into the A-share market with a total of 112.5 billion yuan, which has exceeded the net inflow for the whole of last year;Net purchases in a single week hit the second highest level in historyOnly slightly lower than the historical record of 48.8 billion yuan created in December 2021.
Regarding the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the inflow of foreign capital, the Zheshang Securities Research Report believes that the RMB exchange rate and capital inflow are easy to form “Capital inflow → exchange rate appreciation → capital inflow“Positive feedback, with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the value of domestic RMB assets will increase, and the willingness of foreign capital to allocate RMB assets will increase, while the inflow of foreign capital will increase the market demand for RMB and further promote the exchange rate.
As for the current allocation of A shares, Zheshang Securities stated that it currently has a high allocation value. The broker pointed out that as of January 18, 2023, the price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 12.9, which was at the 39.3% quantile of the historical trend in the past 10 years. The 67.56% and 48.6% quantiles of the annual historical trend, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and capital has flowed out of the United States. Among emerging economies, my country and India are more competitive. Judging from the current valuation position of the equity market, the A-share market has a higher allocation value .
In the Hong Kong stock market, institutions believe that it may usher in a double restoration of profits and valuations. HSBC Jintrust Fund stated that the Hong Kong stock market may usher in a double restoration of profitability and valuation in 2023, so in 2023, we can look forward to embracing the “Davis double-click” market. However, since the first quarter may still face uncertainties in the short term, they will gradually increase their risk appetite according to the pace of profit recovery.
