According to the assessment of the transmission system operators of the Baltic states, the reserves of electricity generation capacity will be very small in the Baltic and Scandinavian region on December 14, 15 and 16, informs AS “High voltage network“.
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This can lead to an increase in electricity prices on the stock exchange. Electric supplies restrictions are unlikely, however, their possibility cannot be completely excluded if there are unforeseen accidents of power plants or interconnections in the energy system.
Consumers are encouraged to conserve electricity as much as possible during ‘peak’ consumption hours, which are usually 8am to 12pm and 3pm to 7pm.
“This week it gets colder in Northern Europe and it will be the first winter challenge for the energy system. A tense situation has developed in southern Sweden and Finland, where increased consumption alternates with the unavailability of some nuclear power plants The situation in the Baltics is relatively good, however, the possible shortage of electricity supply capacity in Sweden and Finland, from which the Baltic states get its electricity, may affect the Baltic energy system,” says Gatis Junghāns, JSC board member ” Augstsprieguma tīkls”, referring to the analysis provided by the Joint Regional Coordination Center of Transmission System Operators of the Baltic States.
In Sweden between 9 am and 6 pm. The 1400 MW Oskarshamn 3 nuclear power plant has been under repair since December. The 1130 MW Ringhals 4 nuclear power plant is also out of service until 23 February 2023. In Finland, the start of new 1600 MW Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant has been postponed to February 2023. In the Baltic energy system, on the other hand, most of the large power plants are ready to go into operation and all interconnections with Scandinavia and Poland are also operational. In Latvia, all TPPs in Riga operate at maximum capacity. The situation is also improved by the fact that peak consumption in the Baltics right now is generally around 10% lower than in 2021.
It has already been reported that in early November the electricity transmission system operators of the Baltic Sea Countries agreed on a thorough exchange of information and cooperation in order to reduce the impact on electricity users in case of specific restrictions on the availability of electricity are determined in one of the countries. The joint expert group analyzes the energy sufficiency situation in the Baltic Sea region, paying particular attention to the dependence of countries on cross-border influences.
According to the ENTSO-E report of the European Transmission Operators’ Association published in autumn, this winter, particularly in January and February, there will be a higher risk of electricity unavailability and overall lower safety margins than in previous years. In case of low water supply in hydroelectric power station reservoirs, risks of insufficient electricity can arise in southern Sweden and Norway, as well as in eastern Denmark. If the production of nuclear power plants is reduced, the risks of energy shortages could increase in southern Sweden and Finland, trading areas of electricity that depend on imports.
On the other hand, the ENTSO-E “Winter Outlook” report, made public at the beginning of December, indicates that, although the European electricity system is exposed to a greater risk of energy shortages this winter, the measures taken by the operators of transmission systems have made it possible to reduce the possible impact caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report provides an assessment of the security of electricity supply in the upcoming winter across Europe.
The report notes that Europe’s electricity system remains heavily dependent on gas, however, favorable weather conditions may reduce this energy system dependency. European countries have taken special measures to prepare for the winter (pumping gas into storage, expansion or resumption of operation of some power plants, fuel switching, ambition to reduce electricity consumption), as well as a 5% reduction in peak electricity demand in accordance with the decision of the European Union. All of these measures will significantly reduce the risk of energy shortages, the report said.
