Political Marketing Consultant
If it were possible to graph this year 2020 that we live in Argentina, I would do it with the metaphor of “the perfect storm”. These types of storms are generally produced by the meeting of the great masses of cold air that descend from the north pole with the great masses of warm air of tropical storms, causing in their union tremendous hurricanes that from time to time make landfall devastating cities whole.
The coronavirus pandemic was a great and unexpected health crisis that devastated the whole world, but also in our country it encountered the economic crisis, which was already installed and had been growing for a long time, forming a true perfect storm for the governments of the day; the majority also, newcomers.
From March to November, including the national, provincial, and municipal governments, they have been dodging this hurricane as much as possible.
Neither the president nor the governor, much less the mayors, had previous experience in this type of situation, nor with manuals that would indicate the way forward. Reason why we have gone through times where chaos, uncertainty and improvisations prevailed. Although accompanied by a strong government voluntarism that infected a large part of society helping to overcome adversity, despite the little support received by their opposition, which, in some cases, positioned themselves more as part of the problem than of the solution.
It will be for the future and the analysis of specialists, the enumeration of each and every one of the mistakes made by the governments in this crisis. It is not the interest of this note. Although I do mention them in general to be able to explain the reasons for the promotions, falls and setbacks evidenced by the image studies and discharge from the leaders mentioned here.
Before the start of the pandemic, both the president and the Rio Negro governor showed approval ratings similar to the percentage of votes obtained in their respective elections. Most of the mayors of our province as well, except those of the Rio Negro capital and the San Matías Gulf who were ‘pum up’ as a result of the successful summer they knew how to create.
“We all have a plan until they hit us with the first pineapple,” said Mike Tyson. And at that moment all the perfectly and patiently delineated government plans between the post-election and the post-inauguration honeymoon fell apart like a house of cards. And the improvisation began. The initial nadism does not happen, exemplified in that phrase of the national health minister Ginés González García “there is no possibility that there is a coronavirus in Argentina” pronounced on January 22 at a time when dengueque the Chinese virus occupied it more, we went to the closing total of the country with the national ASPO decreed on March 19.
From “we are a unique case in the world, which ordered a full quarantine” affirmed by President Alberto Fernández at a time when the virological expert committee dominated the political-media scene, we passed one million people at the official wake of Diego Maradona at Casa Rosada.
From those epic war scenes starring mayors and neighbors in mid-March, putting up barricades at the entrances to their cities to prohibit access to foreign visitors, violating article 14 of our National Constitution, we started to open everything to tourism again because the economy thus sends it. To cite just three examples of the hundreds of mistakes made.
Thus the image and discharge of the rulers entered a kind of roller coaster, with high ascents and dizzying falls. Today very few rulers have positive differentials in their qualifications. In the cases of the president and the governor of Rio Negro, for example, this differential is negative. In other words, their disapproval rates are higher than their approval ratings. And in the case of mayors and mayors who can show positive differentials, with a couple of exceptions, their values are slightly below the votes obtained in their respective elections. The worst is over and now, vaccination on national soil, the time for the rebound is coming, some may be thinking.
But is the worst over, or are we experiencing the calm of the eye of the hurricane? It would be good if you take the time to think about it and not repeat previous mistakes.
Another election year begins
Odd year, election year. And in this, our province of Río Negro must elect the replacements of the national deputies Lorena Matzen (UCR-Cambiemos) and Ayelén Spósito as a background fight, in addition to other councilors from some towns in the province in the preliminary fight.
Two places for three applicants. Today’s photo shows that the Frente de Todos would arrive as a favorite in that fight. With an electoral floor above 30%, his place is almost guaranteed. His fight is not outwards but inside the space, by the definition of the name of the person who will occupy that bench.
The current deputy has not had the opportunity to demonstrate any special gifts that make her a natural candidate for continuity, but she represents a very important sector of national Peronism with a strong territorial presence and anchoring in Casa Rosada, the Evita Movement.
Sorismo already has its quota covered in the lower house with Martín Soria. And of the three most important sectors of current Rio Negro Peronism, it is the only one that has not built important national ties. So then, it is La Campora, anchored in the Instituto Patria and the Senate of the Nation, who best appears to challenge the Evita Movement for that seat.
On the other hand, it would be costing the UCR more than one Peru to maintain Matzen’s current bank in the face of the dispute presented to it, inside its space the PRO and outside Together We Are Río Negro.
Between these two new parties the fight for the other seat is concentrated. Today’s photo shows the provincial JSRN party more likely to stay with him, expanding its representation in the lower house. But, as I mentioned in the opening part of this note, this will not be a choice like the many previous ones in normal times.
The health pandemic has not yet been solved and the economic pandemic is not resolved either. The storm does not appear to have abated. Much of the luck of the choice will depend on the attitude and aptitude in solving it.
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