In Colombia, Chile and Peru, the left seems to have the wind in its sails. In power for a few months in Chile and Peru, qualified for the second round of the presidential election in Colombia, heading to these three countries to analyze the underside of these political thrusts.
In Chile, four months of power and social reforms
In Chile, the centre-left government will begin its fourth month at the helm of the country. The young 36-year-old president, Gabriel Boric, had won the election against a far-right candidate, proposing a program with numerous social reforms.
>> Presidential election in Chile: three questions about Sunday’s election, dominated by the extremes
Chileans want Gabriel Boric’s promises to materialize quickly: pension reform, the 40-hour day, or even the improvement of the health system. However, the government must now manage growing inflation and an economy that is still fragile due to the pandemic. Added to this are problems of insecurity in the capital Santiago, and violence in the south of the country, in Mapuche territory, the most important indigenous people in Chile.
The government has still managed to pass laws in recent weeks, despite its lack of a majority in parliament. Gabriel Boric succeeded in raising the minimum wage and set up several financial aids for the poorest households. The young government is not losing its reformist course either: discussions are currently underway with social organizations around the issue of pensions. The tax reform, meanwhile, should be in the hands of Congress within a few weeks: it is a priority for the government, which will have to finance all its social reforms.
Gabriel Boric is also counting heavily on the new constitution still being drafted. The new constitutional text will have to be very different from the current one, drafted under the dictatorship and ultra-liberal. If approved by the referendum next September, the new constitution will give a much greater role to the state.
In Peru, a disappointing record ten months after taking power
In Peru, it will be one year in July that Pedro Castillo acceded to the presidency of the Republic under the label of a Marxist-Leninist party. This teacher had created the surprise and carried the hope of the working classes. A year later, it is clear that its results are disappointing.
Pedro Castillo has lost a lot of support over the months, even among the working classes in rural areas who had voted overwhelmingly for him.
Today, almost 70% of respondents disapprove of its management, according to a latest survey by the Institute of Peruvian Studies. The same proportion hopes that he will not finish his mandate which runs until 2026.
However, this discredit is not unique to Pedro Castillo. In Peru, the entire political class is disavowed. Congress, government, president: “Let them all go“, chanted the Peruvians during demonstrations against the high cost of living, last April.
>> Peru: the new president, Pedro Castillo, takes the lead of a fractured country
Pedro Castillo offers a lot of measures in shambles. Result: he is accused of being a demagogue and few of these measures succeed. For example, he pleads for a change in the Constitution, the current one being accused of favoring private interests. However, the proposal did not make it past Congress, as did his push for tax reform.
It is true that the parliament stands in the way and thinks only of overthrowing it. Pedro Castillo has already escaped two dismissal procedures, but analysts also point to poorly prepared measures and great improvisation. Its policy is also not very readable. In his speech, he places himself on the left but he has brought right-wing personalities into his government and is very conservative in the social field. The progressive left has also slammed the door of its government.
In Colombia, the left largely in the lead in the first round of the presidential election
In Colombia, Gustavo Petro won the first round of the presidential election hands down on Sunday.
This election is considered historic because it is the first time in the history of this country that the left has made such a score. Colombia experienced a long armed conflict and the presence of Marxist guerrillas discredited the democratic left for more than half a century. The peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas signed in 2016 opened up the political game. The pandemic has worsened inequalities in a country that is already very unequal. All this explains Gustavo Petro’s score.
>> Presidential election in Colombia: left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro will face independent millionaire Rodolfo Hernandez in the second round
However, winning in the second round will not be so easy for him. The first round saw an outsider emerge, Rodolfo Hernandez, who with 28% of the vote ousted the traditional right-wing candidate, Federico Gutierrez, from the presidential race. Rodolfo Hernandez is a wealthy 77-year-old entrepreneur who campaigned without a party and without any other program than to denounce the corrupt. The press often compares him to Donald Trump. For Gustavo Petro, Hernandez is a tough opponent.
Rodolfo Hernandez played the card of anti-corruption and criticism of the elites. If he had not passed the second round, some of his voters would have voted for Gustavo Petro. In contrast, right-wing voters who voted for Federico Gutierrez harbor hatred toward Petro. They’re all going to vote for Rodolfo Hernandez who doesn’t talk about taxing the rich or shutting down oil production like Petro.
The challenge for the left is to get the abstainers, who represent 46% of the electorate, to vote.
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