With the war in Ukraine entering its second year, questions are increasingly being raised about the outcome of the raging military confrontation between the West and Moscow, especially in light of the absence of any indication of an “imminent resolution” in favor of any party.
Thomas Minnie, a foreign policy researcher at the German Max Planck Society, a prestigious think tank, presents his vision of the outcome of the war raging in Ukraine.
According to the analysis reported by The New York Times, there is only one possible way for Ukraine to win the war, which is for NATO forces to be deployed on the ground, and then he wondered if there was any party that could take this step.
The international expert stated that the United States is keen not to enter directly into the military conflict with Russia, despite providing weapons and generous military support to Kiev, a position expressed by the US Chief of Staff in an explicit and unequivocal manner.
Mini pointed out that the first year of the war in Ukraine made President Volodymyr Zelensky gain confidence and raise the ceiling of expectations, so he was looking for a “complete victory”, while he was ready to make concessions when the drums of war were beating in February 2022.
The expert explains that the Kremlin has already realized the difficulty of achieving the goals it set at the beginning, when it launched military operations and is betting on changing the existing political system in Kiev.
At the present time, Mini believes that Moscow is primarily keen to maintain its positions in Donetsk and Luhansk, while ensuring a bridge extending towards the Crimean peninsula.
But Zelensky is not in front of signs waving in his favor on the battlefield, because the Russians are also determined to move forward with the military operation that they launched on February 24, 2022, and paid a heavy price for it.
Saab horizon
The expert in international affairs acknowledges the difficulty of Ukraine in the future being able to recover the sites that Russia controlled in this region.
However, the situation is not entirely bleak in front of Kiev, according to the expert, because the country’s economy is resilient, and Ukraine still controls seven out of the eight provinces that have the highest per capita GDP.
Mini warns that Ukraine may expose itself to dangers and may lose its positions in the event of a counterattack, while continuing to fight may be in favor of Russia.
Among those risks is that the conflict will be prolonged and Ukraine will turn into something like a “buffer state” between Russia and the West, and this will weaken its chances of joining NATO and the European Union in the future.
Recently, the American historian Stephen Kotkin said that it is better for Ukraine to deal intelligently and choose a “pragmatic” definition of victory, such as by obtaining membership in the European Union, rather than betting on the restoration of all lands that have come under Russian control.
