[周刊王CTWANT] Taiwanese equities will close next Monday and the October line will inevitably fall sharply, but historical statistics show that each November and December are the two months with the highest growth rate for Taiwanese equities. In January of the following year, experts Investors are optimistic that there will be a rebound in the market.
Du Jinlong, a senior securities analyst, proposed that Taiwan shares have an opportunity to rebound from November to January next year. The reasons include: 1. According to historical statistics, there is an 80% increase in the fourth quarter of each year; Years later, there were no consecutive quarterly drops; over the last 60 years, from November to January of the following year, the average increase was 1.816%, 3.032% and 3.199% respectively.
2. The United States will hold elections on November 8th. The stock market hit a low in September. From October (up to 27), the Dow Jones index rose 11.52%, the Nasdaq and Feihan rose 2.05% and 1.47 Taiwan The stock-weighted index and the counter-buy index fell 4.74% and 6.45% respectively since October, and Taiwan’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has dropped about 9 times, which is similar to 9.05 times the tsunami financial was 3,955 points in 2009. TSMC fell 10.07% this year fell 48% and the current PE is only 10 times.
3. The four main indicators of the total economy, except that the economic growth rate (GDP) may not fall until next year, the economic countermeasure signal in September reached the lower end of the yellow and blue lights and it could reach the blue light of October; M1b and M2 have already shown a death cross; Both export and export orders showed negative growth.
4. Political elections are about to take place on November 26, but “someone seems to deliberately exert pressure on the market”, “there is an international vulture in the market, taking advantage of the tension between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to suppress the stock market and Taiwan foreign exchange and make a profit on both sides, “with the policy underpinning many low-end Taiwanese stocks.
5. Taiwan’s shares fell 5,990 points from the highest to the lowest this year. From a technical point of view, the deviation is too large and Taiwan shares have the opportunity to start a deep rebound.
Huang Wenqing, vice president of Taishin Investment Consulting, and Li Fangguo, president of Uni-President Investment Consulting, both agree with historical statistics. January, and there is a possibility of a rebound. Huang Wenqing believes small and mid-sized stocks that have recently dipped deep have taken the lead and rebounded.When the tech heavyweight stock financial reports next week lag for a while, major stocks with high weights have the opportunity to go deep and rebound, or see a thousand-point rebound.
However, Lei Fangguo has relatively reservations about the strong rebound in Taiwanese stocks at the end of the year, noting that recent technology leaders have released conservative outlook, that there are still many variables in the economy next year and the situation of US inflation and the interest rate hike is still strong. Inflation is evident and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy is slowing, so Taiwan stocks have the opportunity to have a big rebound.
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