“I admit to being nervous to see so many people in the middle of all these tools,” recognizes Hans McPherson. On this beautiful autumn afternoon, this farmer from Stevensville, a town of 2,000 people lost in western Montana, welcomes into the large workshop of his farm a hundred people who have come to encourage the Democratic senator of their state, Jon Tester, candidate for re-election.
A farmer too, he is one of the most scrutinized American elected officials of the moment: on his shoulders rests the Democratic majority in the Senate and, with it, the leadership of the next presidency. “We are the most targeted campaign in the entire country,” he says to his audience.
23 seats to defend out of 34 for the Democrats
Overshadowed by the presidential election, control of the upper house is one of the other major issues of November 5. For now, the Democrats have a very narrow majority: 51 seats against 49 for the Republicans. They cannot afford to concede more than one. Problem: the electoral map is very unfavorable to them. The party must defend 23 seats out of the 34 at stake. The left is already assured of losing West Virginia, a very pro-Trump state. Jon Tester, one of the last Democrats to represent a heavily Republican rural territory, could well be the second.
Without a majority in the Senate, a potential President Kamala Harris would struggle to implement her legislative agenda, particularly restoring access to abortion nationally. And if Donald Trump is victorious, the Democrats would be deprived of an important counter-power against the billionaire.
Elected and re-elected every six years since 2006, Jon Tester, 68, is a political pillar in this sparsely populated state (1.1 million inhabitants), where relationships have long taken precedence over partisan labels. He decided to focus his campaign on local issues, such as the preservation of the public domain, very important in this state of hunters and breeders, rather than on divisive national themes (immigration, LGBT, etc.). He is one of the few Democrats who did not support Kamala Harris and did not even attend her inauguration, arguing that he had to tend to his farm.
Above all, this Montanan for several generations, who lost three fingers in a meat grinder, poses as a guarantor of the “real” Montana against his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, a millionaire and 37-year-old former soldier born in another state. .
Abortion and the decisive vote for women
Mark Barner is convinced. A “Trump 2024” cap on his head, this octogenarian from Belgrade, the small town where Sheehy founded a company specializing in aerial firefighting, will vote for Trump and Tester on November 5. “I like Donald Trump’s outspokenness, but Sheehy doesn’t match Montana’s values. He has a lot of money, doesn’t allow people to hunt on his ranch. He’s not from here…”
His opinion is not shared by everyone. During the pandemic, new populations settled in this state of large natural spaces, where health restrictions were almost non-existent. Today, half of Montana’s population is not from there. And the majority of those arriving are conservatives, who don’t know Jon Tester and aren’t willing to vote Democratic in the age of polarization.
In Manhattan, a city located along the railway line used by endless freight trains, Matt Michaels will support all the Republican candidates in the running. “Tester has been in office since 2006. It’s time to bring in some new blood and put in office someone who is in tune with the political color of Montana,” he says.
The Democrat could, however, benefit from the holding, at the same time as the November elections, of a referendum on the inclusion of access to abortion in the State Constitution. This type of consultation can increase the mobilization of women in favor of the Democrats. In Helena, the capital, Sandy Mitchell, 78, describes himself as “always republican”but will vote for Harris and Tester. “The choice to keep a baby should not belong to political leaders, she emphasizes. Besides, Donald Trump is a hateful man. »
