Monday night you could hear the air sirens over all major Ukrainian cities. Several in places there were air raids.
In the last 24 hours, the Russians have tried, but been beaten back somewhat, in the Donbas region. Also in Kharkiv, the fighting is starting to pick up again, says Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College and leader of their research group in Ukraine, to TV 2.
There has been talk in the last week that the Russians are mobilizing for a new major offensive.
– Is it this offensive that is now underway?
– The Russians are still reorganizing groups in connection with the withdrawal in northern areas. They will normally need a little more time to get into battle mode. It is a matter of compensating for losses, those who have suffered wear and tear must recover, and if you want to go back in an organized way, you have to spend some time, says Røseth.
According to IRW (Institute for the study of war), there were also fierce fighting in Mariupol this weekend. Ukrainian forces are preparing here on what they call a final blow.
– Old equipment
Røseth believes that those who are now sent into Ukraine from Russia are first and foremost inexperienced.
– What the Russians are filling up with now is personnel and material they have quickly filled up with. Much of the equipment is old, and the soldiers are partly untrained, he says.
Røseth believes that what we are now seeing on the ground in Ukraine is a continuation of the military action to maintain momentum.
– But the big offensive they will need more time to prepare for, he says.
Dries up in May
Røseth also says that we will eventually see that the season will also be able to help the Russian forces.
– The efforts of the Ukrainians have been impressive. They have thrown the Russians out of the north, their resilience is strong. At the same time, the situation will become more challenging when the field dries up in the east at the beginning of May, he says.
He points out that large areas of land have so far been so muddy that it has been problematic to drive military vehicles here. During the invasion, the Russians have so far been dependent on roads and other infrastructure.
– During May, it will dry up so that they can drive off the roads. It will be challenging for the Ukrainians, because they will lose some of their natural defenses, he says.
With more opportunities to drive the vehicles, the Russians will be able to change strategy.
– They will be able to switch to a maneuver warfare that can quickly and quickly surround the enemy, and where firepower and speed are used to a greater extent as a tool, he says.
The Russians are recruiting
Røseth is clear that there is no indication that the Russians are about to give up.
– There is no reason to believe that the Russians are about to give up, we see that in the recruitment. The Russians are now trying to recruit tens of thousands of soldiers to their troops, he says.
Røseth’s colleague, Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen, also believes that the Russians are now making progress.
In order for them to achieve anything in the near future, they must be able to gather enough military forces to defeat Ukraine in Dombas. We see that they are trying now, he says.
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