During the first wave of the “new coronavirus”, almost all the countries of the world had strictly confined, with close results: after three weeks, mortality began to drop again, rapidly.
Rare notable exceptions, the United States, Brazil and Sweden, which had not confined. And the epidemic had killed many more there than in their respective neighbors. Sweden then deplored ten times more deaths per million inhabitants than its neighbors, Brazil significantly more than the rest of South America, the United States than its Canadian neighbor, for example.
Europe and the American continent very bruised
For the second wave, nothing is so simple. First, because the countries are moving forward rather in dispersed order: some have reconfigured, others have not, still others have tried intermediate solutions.
To date, the world map of the death rate from covid-19 shows that most of Europe and the American continent remain the most affected.
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Most of the countries on these two continents have between 500 and 1000 deaths per million inhabitants.
The “young” countries largely spared
The African continent, where the population is on average much younger, suffers from low mortality, with the disease mainly affecting the elderly in its severe form. The Maghreb, which is “older” on average, is moreover a little more affected, as is South Africa.
In Asia, the epidemic remains under control, except in India and around the Persian Gulf. Here again, the low average age of the populations of many countries makes it possible to avoid a high excess mortality.
Beyond the mere average death rate per million inhabitants, we must look at the evolution of the epidemic to detect its seriousness.
Europe: similar developments in spring
The following graphs show, for three sets of countries, the number of deaths from covid per million inhabitants over time, since February.
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On this first graph, we see that these eight countries experienced an almost simultaneous first wave. We remember that Italy was affected shortly before France, then Germany. Southern Europe had globally posted a higher mortality, as well as the United Kingdom, which had been slow to contain.
Germany and Switzerland very bruised in the fall
Germany, in fact, had, like Switzerland, been distinguished by a much better management, recording much fewer deaths than its neighbors.
Too much optimism? The situation is very different this fall: Germany has already recorded significantly more deaths than in the first wave: nearly 15,000 against less than 10,000. This does not yet place the country among the most affected, far from it. But the dynamic is bad, and Angela Merkel has confined Germany for three weeks.
In Switzerland, it’s worse: the second wave has already killed almost four times more than the first (6,500 against 1,800), and the curve is rising sharply.
From “high plateaus” of mortality
Conversely, the UK, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium “control” a second wave – nevertheless almost as deadly as the first. And far from over.
In France, for the past ten days, mortality has remained around 300 to 400 daily deaths, which is a lot. But it is no longer increasing. After recording 30,245 deaths between March and July, it now exceeds 60,000 deaths.
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In Switzerland, for example (eight times less populated), the plateau is very high, around 90-100 deaths per day, or even more in recent days, as we can see on this graph. Or as a proportion of the population, double the French figures …
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These “high plateaus” of mortality, down from the peak but at a still high level, are also found in Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. The approach of the end of year celebrations fears the worst in these countries, in the heart of winter.
Swedish strategy still losing
Further north, in Scandinavia, this other graph shows four countries including one exception: Sweden, which shows a mortality comparable to that recorded in southern Europe.
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The lack of confinement in Sweden, comparable in all respects with its neighbors, seems to have paid for itself. To the point that the king recognized Thursday – unlike the government – a dramatic error in the management of the health crisis.
Sweden even ended up recommending wearing the mask on Friday. A first in the kingdom, faced with the inexorable explosion of the epidemic.
And for the second wave, same causes, same effects: Finland, Norway and Denmark manage to contain contaminations and mortality, when Sweden sees the number of deaths soar. For the moment, again, in proportions lower than those of spring.
Economically, Sweden has held up (a little) better than its neighbors. But at the cost of thousands of premature deaths …
Americas: curves that soar
On the American continent, finally, three countries with different destinies: two quite similar, the United States and Brazil, which have distinguished themselves at the global level by their refusal of any generalized confinement, even by a certain skepticism, assumed, towards the pandemic.
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In these two giants, we can especially distinguish a single wave, almost without respite, and which continues its course. Even if the current level of mortality places them a little above European levels, we can see above all that the curve is not sagging, quite the contrary: the United States, in particular, is breaking day after day a new mortality record – more 3000 per day currently. Or more than one “World Trade Center” (2977 dead on September 11, 2001) … every day.
The arrival at the White House of Joe Biden and the deployment of the vaccine will they slow down the disease? Response in the coming weeks.
The epidemic finally out of control in Argentina
Same scenario in Brazil, where President Bolsonaro, skeptical among the skeptics, announced that he would be vaccinated. In the meantime, the second most damaged country in the world is still showing rampant mortality.
As for Argentina … for a long time “good pupil” of South America, it hardly knew the first wave in spring: it nevertheless confined from March 20 until … November 29 .
Yes, but here it is: this seven-month confinement mainly concerned a single region – that of the capital Buenos Aires -, the others deconfining and reconfining over the summer. But it was in July-August, thanks to lower temperatures in the southern hemisphere, that the epidemic finally took off, without calming down since.
There remains Paraguay and Uruguay which, from the beginning, have stood out in particular: these two neighboring states of Brazil have remained particularly sheltered, without any notable explanation. However, there has been a sharp increase in contaminations and deaths in recent weeks. Far, again, from the situation of their South American neighbors.
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