/ world today news/ If the local elections were held today, 20.2% would vote for GERB, 12.8% for BSP, 7.1% for DPS, RB – 3.4%, PF – 2.3%, Ataka – 2.1%, ABV – 1.6%. This is shown by a study by “Sova Harris” about the political attitudes of Bulgarians.
About 6 months before the local government elections, almost half of the voters say that they do not intend to take part in them. 17% of people say they will not vote at all in local elections.
Given that turnout is generally lower in local elections, it can be assumed that the group of non-voters is likely to grow even more in the fall.
From this it follows, according to the agency, that the candidates of the parties with established structures and solid electoral cores will receive an advantage. With low voter turnout, the importance of controlled (bought) votes will increase. A possible counterpoint to these negative circumstances could be the majority component. Strong candidates and openness to civil structures will stand a chance against the status quo, which does not inspire inspiration and particular hopes among citizens. It is too early to predict the effect of possible changes in the election rules. However, to count that a change in the formal framework will lead to significant adjustments in people’s attitudes and behavior is short-sighted.
Given the current situation, the best prepared party for the upcoming elections is GERB again. Through control over the state apparatus and institutions, the best financial potential, with good positions in the local government and, above all, the high level of electoral support, this party ensures a comfortable lead for each of its candidates. The chances of a large-scale victory for GERB in the local elections seem stable.
The lack of perspective stands out as a major problem for the BSP. The failure of the Oresharski Cabinet is for now an obstacle for the socialists to occupy the position of an alternative in the minds of the voters. The role of opposition, which the centenarian stands for, implies a longer period of building readiness for the realization of an electoral victory. Moreover, the processes of swarming in the left space increasingly threaten the BSP’s monopoly in this sector. The need to reformat the left, to open up its political representation to wider civil strata, to bring out the fight against inequality as a principle in every political manifestation of the left seems urgent. If the BSP does not want to follow the fate of the SDS, it must prove to the voters that it is a post-transitional party, such as GERB. Whether this can be done in an evolutionary way through renewal is debatable. In its current form, for a significant part of the voters, the BSP is a party of transition and as such is doomed to be unable to generate mass enthusiasm for change. At the elections in the fall of this year The BSP will have the difficult task of showing that the change has begun within itself. If he misses this chance, the consequences for the centenary will be severe.
Electorally, DPS looks stable. At least for now, the positions that the Movement has won in recent years seem defensible. However, from a desired centrist ally of every power, the DPS has turned into an unwanted partner for all major political entities. The sharp turn that the Movement tried to make by going from one ruling majority to another without meeting the expectations of the voters is perhaps possible in the corporate sphere, but not in politics. Representative democracy does not tolerate this. And it is natural that the Lutvi Mestan team fell into isolation. This circumstance suggests that in the local elections in many districts DPS will face more consolidated resistance than its opponents.
For now, the Reform Bloc continues to uphold some of the ideas with which its supporters sent it to power. Although with limited electoral support, behind this formation stands a significant part of the country’s intelligentsia, which gives RB a special weight. Bloc party divisions and temptations in power are serious obstacles that reformers must overcome in order to retain the energy of their supporters.
The struggle between the Patriotic Front and Ataka to win votes in the nationalist niche continues in full force. Ataka bet on pro-Russian sentiments, and the patriots – on defending their views through their presence in the ruling majority. For now, the union between Krasimir Karakachanov and Valeri Simeonov has a slight advantage, but we should not underestimate Volen Siderov, who regularly finds suitable artistic manifestations before elections.
ABVs face a difficult dilemma. Consolidation of the left space ahead of the local vote is an obvious necessity for left-leaning voters. But how do you participate with your opponent in a right-wing government and face him at the ballot box? Logically, this contradiction also led to a conflict within the organization itself. It remains to be seen which of the two directions the party elite will choose at its upcoming congress. Without cooperation with the BSP in the local elections, Georgi Parvanov’s party could not count on significant results.
For the BBC, we can say that its leader remained in the position of “a warrior is a warrior himself”. Positioned unequivocally against the leadership of Boyko Borisov and rejected by his team of right-wing like-minded people, Nikolay Barekov has no choice but to wait for the winds of change, according to the survey.
The institutions that make up the Bulgarian state can be divided into two main groups according to the voters’ evaluations. In one are those with a positive rating, where approval exceeds disapproval. In the second are those in which negative evaluations prevail. The first group includes the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, the Ombudsman, the European Parliament and the European Commission. However, none of them is related to the Bulgarian state administration. At all other institutions, not only approval is lower, but disapproval also prevails. At the bottom of the scale are the structures related to the judiciary. It is obvious that people’s expectations are for a radical reform in this area. The rehabilitation of the institutions before public opinion must start from there.
Six are the members of the cabinet with a positive rating – that is, the people who think that the respective minister is doing his job successfully are more than those who think that he is not doing it successfully. The Prime Minister is among these six. In general, if we compare Boyko Borisov’s behavior during his first and second terms as prime minister, we can decide that it is a different politician. Now he is more moderate, agreeable and consensual. It seems that the current prime minister has already entered the role of head of state. Perhaps the basis is the balance that has to be maintained as a result of the complex combination that makes up the parliamentary majority. Calming the situation in a country at first glance seems like a stabilizing factor. If we look at the problems of holding in the longer term, however, we will find that the role of the prime minister as a reformer is simply mandatory. Serious reforms in key areas are imperative. So far, it seems that only the smaller partners in the ruling coalition are trying to make efforts in this direction. The minister of regional development and public works Liljana Pavlova is undoubtedly the standout in the cabinet. It is everywhere where new objects are discovered or there are natural disasters and accidents. Second according to the voter’s assessment is Health Minister Petar Moskov. The reformer imposed direct language and confrontation with the problems in perhaps the most difficult sector after the judicial sphere, which is health care. However, boldly plunging headfirst does not guarantee that you will be able to resurface. The eventual success of Dr. Moscow correlates directly with the needs of each of us. The group of successful ministers is complemented by proven professionals such as Ivaylo Kalfin (Minister of Labor and Social Policy) and Tomislav Donchev (responsible for the European Funds). Among them, the Bulgarian citizens of full age also place Rumyana Bachvarova, who, in addition to coalition politics, recently took over the heavy portfolio of the Ministry of the Interior. This group also includes the Minister of Culture, Vezhdi Rashidov, who, thanks to his experience from the previous Cabinet, assumed his functions on the fly. Voters’ assessment also forms a group that we can define as the “golden middle”. It includes the experienced Meglena Kuneva (deputy prime minister), the ministers Ivaylo Moskovski (of transport) and Vladislav Goranov (of finance), as well as some of the new names, such as the Minister of Sports Krasen Kralev, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Daniel Mitov , Minister of Tourism Nikolina Angelkova, Minister of Economy Bozhidar Lukarski, Minister of Agriculture and Food Desislava Taneva and Minister of Defense Nikolay Nenchev. Apparently, they all have more to convince the voters of the effectiveness of their actions. The group with the lowest level of satisfactory ratings contains mostly ministers from the sectors in which urgent reforms are required. These are the Minister of Justice Hristo Ivanov, the Minister of Environment and Water Ivelina Vasileva, the Minister of Energy Temenuzka Petkova and the Minister of Education and Science Todor Tanev.
By order of the “Press” newspaper in the period March 12-18, 2015. the agency for social, political and marketing research “Sova Harris” conducted a survey representative of the adult population of Bulgaria. The survey was conducted using the standardized face-to-face interview method and covered 1,000 people. Maximum error for 50% relative proportion at 95% guaranteed probability: 3.10%.
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