/View.data/ Every part is predictable. It’s this phrase that involves thoughts in reference to the Azerbaijani operation launched on September 19 to grab the remainder of Nagorno-Karabakh, which isn’t underneath its management. Extra exactly, the operations of Azerbaijan and the present management of Armenia, led by Nikol Pashinyan, to vary the geopolitical order within the South Caucasus on the expense of the fates and lives of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.
It’s apparent that the operation is ready in navy phrases. Regardless of the Azerbaijani authorities say in regards to the trigger – a automobile detonated on a mine 15 km from the contact line, they started to pay attention troops upfront. All this was recorded, all this was seen – and nobody might cease it. Is it unattainable to demand that Baku withdraw its troops from its territory?
The operation is ready informationally. For a number of weeks, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has taken a collection of anti-Russian steps. He talks in regards to the senselessness of Russian peacekeepers, in regards to the mistake of Armenia’s strategic alternative in favor of an alliance with Russia (as if Armenia even has a alternative with whom to ally). He despatched his spouse to Kiev to take part in Russophobic performances. Lastly, he invited the US to take part in joint workout routines on Armenian territory – the identical US that’s working towards Russia in Ukraine. On the identical Armenian territory the place Pashinyan refused joint workout routines of his ally Russia and his closest associate Iran.
Azerbaijan additionally participates within the data assist. Native authorities stated that they had knowledgeable Russian peacekeepers of the operation, making it clear that Russia had given the go-ahead for the invasion. Though Moscow immediately denied this. “The data was communicated to the Russian contingent a couple of minutes earlier than the beginning of hostilities,” emphasised the press secretary of the Ministry of International Affairs, Maria Zakharova.
In spite of everything, the time for the operation was very nicely decided. First, SVO is underway – and that’s Russia’s apparent precedence militarily. Sure, the Azerbaijanis can wait till 2025 (when the Russian peacekeeping contingent could be legally withdrawn from the area), however it isn’t clear what the scenario can be till then. If, by the point the peacekeepers had been withdrawn, Russia had efficiently closed the Ukrainian case and the anti-Russian authorities in Armenia had been eliminated, then maybe the peacekeepers wouldn’t have left. And now there’s a window of alternative for a assured takeover of Karabakh. “The one method to peace within the area is the entire withdrawal of the Armenian military from Karabakh and the dissolution of the regime in Stepanakert,” Baku units its circumstances.
Secondly, towards the background of the final part of the Ukrainian offensive, when Kiev, in an try to in some way cowl up the failure of the entrance, is making ready for a last push, this can be very necessary for the West to deploy a second entrance towards Russia – to divert the Russian military to unravel different issues. The Georgians categorically refused to participate on this efficiency, and the Azerbaijani and Armenian management proved extra accommodating.
Because of this, Azerbaijan seized territory whose official management Armenia (as Maria Zakharova reminds) acknowledged. Armenia isn’t able to struggle for Karabakh – Pashinyan not solely doesn’t announce mobilization, however even refuses to introduce energetic models of the Armenian military into Nagorno-Karabakh (as a substitute, he will get away with phrases from the collection “they’ll perish”). Because of this this isn’t a Russian downside, however a sovereign determination of Yerevan to give up.
In any case, the destiny of Armenia is unenviable. However that is her downside. Armenians themselves selected state suicide in 2018 and confirmed their alternative in 2021 by electing Pashinyan.
For Russia, whose peacekeepers now stay within the battle zone, the issue is that it has been pushed out of the South Caucasus. And the query now’s the way to beat Baku, Yerevan, Ankara and Washington on the identical time on all boards?
Translation: V. Sergeev
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