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In July, Argentine stocks and bonds jump up to 50% due to the higher expectation of a debt agreement

Also helped by another positive month on Wall Street, the S&P Merval index of Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets accumulated a 27.3% rise in pesos in July, after reaching last week a historical maximum level of 50,091.35 units. Measured in CCL dollars, the monthly advance is reduced to 12.8%.

Regarding the monthly performance of the shares (measured in local currency), the Strong increases in the financial sector: Grupo Supervielle climbed 48.9%; Grupo Financiero Galicia gained 44.7%; and Banco Macro climbed 33.8%. In addition, Cresud’s assets (+ 46.1%) slipped in the first places; and Comercial del Plata (+ 37.1%).

Mariela Díaz Romero, senior economist at Econviews, told Ámbito that “the monthly evolution of the S&P Merval was more influenced after the presentation of the fourth Argentine restructuring offer on July 6, which brought positions closer to investors, despite having been rejected. ” Díaz Romero did not detract from the bullish momentum that the local stock market received to the global performance of the shares, where they stood out Nasdaq’s monthly increases (+ 6.8%); and of the S & P500 (+ 5.5%).

“Closing a successful deal remains the scenario that operators discount, even after the delays and the final tugs.” Gustavo Ber, an economist at the Estudio Ber consultancy, said.

On Wall Street, meanwhile, the ADRs of Argentine companies ended the month with the most promotions, also led by banks. Thus, in the top five of the main increases, the roles of Supervielle appeared (30.9%); Irsa (26.3%); Corporación América (+ 25.7%); Galicia (+ 23.7%); and Loma Negra (+ 19.3%). For its part, Mercado Libre, which posted another record high this Friday, sealed a monthly rise of 14.1%, while YPF advanced 8.4%.

Among the casualties, the actions of Tenaris (-9.5%); Ternium (-5%); and Edenor (-3.3%).

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Regarding the fixed income segment, for its part, the bonds in dollars under Argentine law made progress of up to 50%, such as the Discount (DICA), given the expectation and then confirmation of the equal treatment (in relation to debt under foreign law) that these titles will receive in the debt swap with local legislation. Within this sub segment, Bonar 2037 (AA37) also rose strongly, with + 39.6%; the Bonar 2020 (A020), with + 36%; and Bonar 2024 (AY24), with + 27.7%.

There were also some larger, but more punctual, increases in species under New York law: Bonar 2048 (AE48) shot up 79.6% and Bonar 2026 (AA26) 68.8%, according to Tavelli.

Faced with a context of higher inflation expected in the coming months, bonds that adjust for CER stood out among the securities in pesos, achieving increases of up to 39.4% (Par), while on average they climbed 15% in the month.

In relation to Wall Street, the month was marked by the presentation of company balance sheets, the growing conflict between China and the United States, rumors about possible vaccines for Covid-19, lapsed back in quarantine, and above all, the announcement of how it continues fiscal plan to help the private sector, especially regarding the continuation of extra payments on unemployment insurance, reported the senior economist at Econviews.

In the EU, the most important was the presentation of a stimulus plan for 750 billion euros, which increased the weakness of the US dollar, which reached its lowest level since 2018, and accumulated the largest monthly drop in a decade.

Regarding the local foreign exchange market, the official wholesale dollar appreciated 2.6% in the month, aided by the BCRA’s managed float, which had to sacrifice reserves (about $ 400 million, according to market sources) to keep it at bay, even in a month of foreign exchange inflows. Meanwhile, Sharp increases in financial dollars: the “cash with liqui” jumped 19.2% to $ 124.10, while the MEP or Stock Market shot up 21.6% to $ 122.21. In the parallel market, blue rose almost 8% ($ 10) to $ 136.

In turn, the private Badlar rate yielded 2.4% in July, almost matching the expected inflation for the month.

Last day of the month

With a more cautious tone, the Buenos Aires stock exchange closed lower this Friday, awaiting news on debt restructuring.

BYMA’s leading index fell 0.3% to 49,253.62 units, with a trading volume of $ 1,071.56 million. The balance sheet showed 113 increases, 75 losses and 12 papers without changes.

The highest rise for the day was recorded by Grupo Financiero Valores (+ 3.3%), while the steepest drop corresponded to Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-2.5%).

For his part, lSovereign bonds improved up to 6.1% led by issues denominated in dollars, so the Argentine country risk fell seven units to 2,271 basis points.

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