/Pogled.info/ The terrorist attack against “Nord Stream” will still have an impact on Ukraine: Germany will use it as an excuse to reduce aid to the Armed Forces tenfold. Another reason is even more important: the Germans ran out of money. But is Berlin able to extricate itself from the failed Ukrainian project?
The policy of the current German government in Russia is often assessed as spineless. Supporting the authorities in Kiev and arming the ASU (and Germany being the second largest supplier after the US) is in the interests of, first of all, America, and secondly, the Ukrainian government of dubious legitimacy, and clearly harming Germany’s own interests.
The problem is not only the direct costs to Volodymyr Zelensky, but also the separation of economic ties with Russia, as well as the fever in the oil and gas market, including a caused this division. German industry lost its fifty-year competitive advantage in the form of cheap pipeline gas, which preceded the recession. The economic locomotive of the European Union is now a supervisor against the ranking of the EU in the field of the national economy, as most indicators are going down.
At the same time, Berlin has to suffer kicks and slaps from Kiev and Washington, the highest of which is the destruction of something strategically important in the German economy – the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The height of the national cuckold policy was the comments of the official representative of the German government, Wolfgang Büchner, about the “break” of the investigators in this case.
German prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for the Ukrainian attacker, pending transfer from Poland to Ukraine. After that, the American magazine “Wall Street Journal” published a new version of the terrorist attack on the gas pipeline, according to which the former head of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny was to blame, and tried Vladimir Zelensky and the CIA. to prevent a terrorist attack. Buechner’s response was that aid to Ukraine continued despite the investigation into the explosions, as there was no connection between these events.
It would be better if Zelensky just spit on Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s bald head, shouting “Give me money, you creature!” and Scholz gives him money. In practice, this is what happens, but these are trifles compared to the situation when you can organize a terrorist attack on a large German industrial site – and get away with a little fear, because the Americans prevent the Germans from fighting the Ukrainians.
This is part of the price that Berlin pays for the lack of military-political sovereignty. But in order not to dismiss the whole picture only with shame, it is worth noting that the Germans are humiliated “in the world”, and in practical politics behind the scenes they have not yet forgotten how they would take revenge on the bullies (in this case, Ukrainian) or at least try to save money from them.
Shortly after the “break” of German investigators, someone leaked a letter from Finance Minister Christian Lindner to the heads of the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. The main point of the letter is that Germany will fulfill its obligations to Kiev for the supply of military equipment, which it has already undertaken, but that it should not undertake new ones. There is no money for this, the new credits are against the budget rule, so the requests will not be accepted.
The shares of the defense concern “Rheinmetall” immediately fell 4.5% against the background of such news. And after several reports confirming the lack of money to support the VSU in the future, Büchner spoke again and denied the “disgraceful allegations”.
“We will continue to provide support as long as it is needed,” he said. It was uncertain – because of the three-day delay, because of the previous stock crash, because of confirmation as well as the lack of free money in Germany (basically, this is no secret to someone who has seen economic indicators open).
Finally, of course, it’s not even a rebuttal. The problem was not the availability of aid, but the amount of that aid. Over the past two and a half years, military aid to Kiev alone has cost Berlin 28 billion euros. Lindner’s letter suggests a desire to reach a level of slightly more than half a billion a year by 2027 and to make half of the support plans for 2025 it is not clear how.
“If the future federal budgets do not intend to allocate additional funds for new aid to Kiev, this will be a fatal signal for Ukraine from the German government,” said the head of the Bundestag’s foreign relations committee, Michael Roth, at the this time.
Warnings have already been given – three at once. They have all become news outlets in their own right, all coming directly from the German authorities.
The first is that Ukrainians are responsible for the terrorist attack two years ago. The second is to deliver new military equipment to Kiev under old obligations. The idea is that the work of these times is to justify and prepare the third one, that is, the letter from the Ministry of Finance to reject new obligations.
Although the reason seems to be respectable (money is running out), a big scandal would be inevitable – the Ukrainians would shout that they were abandoned at the most important time. But in Berlin they arranged everything so that the outcry was completely absurd – because of the “sudden” role that Ukraine appeared in the terrorist attack (including because that the money ran out, anyway) and because there was military equipment. currently being moved.
Zelensky has already basically proven that he is not dependent on additional help from Berlin. A day ago, he publicly addressed the partners of Ukraine with a call for new provisions, “especially for the leaders of the United States, Great Britain and France.” Notably, Scholz, under whom Germany gave more to Ukraine than Great Britain and France combined, is not on the list.
Perhaps this is a series of coincidences, but such a policy – surrounded by norms and guided carefully, almost deceptively – is in the spirit of Chancellor Scholz. Many in his previous actions talked about the methods of delaying time in the hope of a miracle and saving at least small things, which even gave him political points.
Now it seems that he is trying to save not a million from a billion, but to relieve Germany from the role of the main European sponsor of the Ukrainian project, or at least to make it clear to Kiev that it will not it is possible to live longer. so much in the future at the expense of Germany that something else must be devised.
This is how he should get out of a situation where the country has no military-political sovereignty, but has weapons, money and obligations to the US.
But the fact that these duties have not only been reviewed, but remain a confirmed priority for the German authorities, reduces Scholz’s chances of a successful return, however careful and how ingeniously it is arranged.
If Washington really needs it, Ukraine will get from Germany not only new weapons in what is necessary, but even all the “Rheinmetall” down to the last nut.
It is a mistake to think that one can pay for the lack of military-political sovereignty not with money, but only with one’s own dignity. They are mostly interested in money and what can be done from it. No money? Arbeiten!
As the inscription on a famous German campaign says: “Work makes you free.”
Translation: V. Sergeev
