More than a week ago, all eyes were still on Marine Le Pen and her party Rassemblement National (RN): would she finally come to power in one or maybe even several French regions? The polls predicted an election victory for RN – a first for the party, which would also act as an important springboard to the presidential elections next April.
Two rounds of voting later, little is left of those high expectations. Already after the first round, last Sunday, Le Pen’s win seemed to be limited to the southern region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. But judging by the first ballot box results, RN again loses there to incumbent regional president Renauld Muselier, who is supported by Les Républicains and Macrons La République en Marche (LREM).
gauge
In advance, the regional elections were labeled as an important indicator of the struggle for the presidency. Until now, it was expected that it will again result in a duel between President Macron and Marine Le Pen. This was reflected in the campaign for the regional elections: although the regions have hardly any powers in the field of security and migration, it was precisely these two national themes that were dominant.
But instead of a first showdown, the regional elections have mainly turned out to be a defeat for both Rassemblement National and LREM. As expected, LREM was also unable to secure a victory in any of the regions.
Significantly, President Macron could not even vote for his own party on Sunday. In the northern region of Hauts-de-France, where Macron was to vote, LREM had already been eliminated in the first round of the regional elections. The same was true for Occitania in the south, where Prime Minister Jean Castex was forced to vote for a competitor after LREM’s elimination in the first round.
In fact, President Macron probably helped his future rival into the saddle on Sunday. In Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand won his re-election as regional president with his own list. Bertrand had taken on a candidate from Rassemblement National, the party that Macron wants to cut off at any cost. Moreover, the popular Bertrand had said in advance that he would also stand for re-election for the presidential elections in April next year.
Completely unsustainable
Five years after its foundation, LREM has still not taken root at the local level. The party also achieved poor results in the municipal elections last year. The new defeat at the regional level raises the question of the future of LREM.
Macron himself had said in advance that he did not want to draw national conclusions from the results of regional elections. But with these results, that is a ‘completely untenable position’, one of his ministers told the French newspaper. The Parisian. Mainly because of the loss to the party, but also because of the dramatically low turnout. Anyone who does not learn any lessons even then, the minister declared anonymously, gives the French the feeling that they have not understood their double warning.
What exactly that warning means is difficult to explain – precisely because of the turnout, which exceeded already low expectations. Also in the second round, only one in three French went to the polls.
But with the presidential elections approaching, there is speculation within LREM about whether the party should merge into a broader movement. For example, through further cooperation with parties that now support the president, such as the center party Mouvement Démocrate.
For the ‘traditional’ parties on the left and right, Parti Socialiste and Les Républicains, Sunday’s result was considered hopeful. In all regions, the incumbent regional presidents have been re-elected, and they mainly come from these parties. The cards for the presidential election can be shuffled again, the right already said. According to Xavier Bertrand, former member of Les Républicains, it will be clear to everyone after today that this battle will not be a duel, but a three-way battle.
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