At the end of December 2022, the old town of Lijiang is calm. Despite the three-day New Year weekend, tourists are rare in this popular city in Yunnan, a mountainous province in southern China. Only young people, most of them under 25, dare to venture into the quiet streets of this once crowded city. Many restaurants and shops keep their doors closed.
Also listen In China the worrying outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic
On the closed shutters of one of them, a small sign indicates: “Because we have many sheep, we are closed this week. » Non-Mandarin, « Mouton » (which) is pronounced as “positive”, so much so that the term has become the affectionate name of people infected with Covid-19. As the country experiences its first massive wave since the abandonment of the zero Covid policy on December 7, 2022, both supply and demand are affected by the extent of the contaminations, forcing customers and employees to stay at home.
Outcome: After suffering from zero Covid throughout the year 2022, China’s economy is now grappling with the virus itself. Which led to new major disruptions. Only 52 million trips were made across the country over the New Year weekend, a very slight increase from 2021 (+0.44%), but a 58% drop from 2019.
Lack of staff
The main difference is that, this time around, economists and investors are optimistic: the situation shouldn’t last. Many expect a recovery after the Chinese New Year holiday on Sunday, January 22, or at least by the end of the first quarter. After a catastrophic year, which is expected to see growth limited to less than 3.2% according to the International Monetary Fund, 2023 could see the return of more dynamic growth. JP Morgan revised its forecast up from 4.3% to 4.4% on Thursday, January 5th.
The country ended 2022 in distress: the PMI index of purchasing managers that measure industrial activity, published on December 31, points to 47, the lowest level since February 2020
The return of sunny days will only be possible when the majority of Chinese people have been infected and the population has acquired sufficient herd immunity. “For the moment I don’t see much difference with the period before the opening”, testifies Cheng Gequ, owner of a small hotel in Lijiang. “It’s even worse than before it opened”, complained, for her part, at the end of December, the saleswoman of a traditional restaurant in Shanghai, equipped with an N95 mask (the equivalent of FFP2). Her rather elderly clientele holed up at home for fear of being infected.
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