In case of high profits, the export of white sugar is considerable and the hedging pressure is on India

Research report text

supply and demand:

Global: ISO: There are no supply gaps in the global market in 21/22 and there is a surplus of 237,000 tonnes. The previous forecast was a shortage of 1.92 million tonnes, mainly because India has continuously lifted its production forecasts. The sugar supply surplus in 22/23 is expected to be 6.2 million tons.

Thailand: The US Department of Agriculture expects sugar production to return to 10 million tons in 22/23, down 600,000 tons year on year.

India: ISMA forecasts that if monsoon rains normal, sugar production in 22/23 is expected to reach 36 million tonnes after considering the switch of 3.4 million tonnes of sugar production to ethanol production, which is the same estimate as this year.

Brazil: At the end of October, sugar production was 30.28 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3%.

China: Sugar production in 21/22 was 9.56 million tons, a year-over-year decline of 1.11 million tons; Sugar production in 22/23 was 10.05 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 490,000 tonnes, a decrease of 300,000 tonnes from the estimated value in October. Import and export In the 2021/22 crushing season, my country imported 520,000 tons of sugar in October, a decrease of 290,000 tons compared to the same period last year and 260,000 tons compared to September.

available:China’s industrial inventories fell 15% year-on-year and 47% month-on-month to 890,000 mt in September.View:In the new year, the global supply of sugar is in excess and the increase is limited. In the short term, focus on Brazil’s logistics and India’s exports in terms of pace, exports are sizable under high profit conditions. Domestic production has been reduced due to drought in Guangxi, Zheng sugar imports are reversed, and attention is paid to cost support. Domestic compression is imminent, pay attention to cover pressure. Pay attention to macro sentiment.

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