/ world today news/ The development of Armenia in modern conditions is an example of the difficult questions that small countries must answer in the context of general geopolitical tension. The best strategy in such circumstances may be to simply go with the flow, accept defeat, and take advantage of the opportunities that suddenly open up. It is difficult to say whether such a strategy will be successful in the long term, but the modern world offers no other alternatives.
When, a few days ago, Vladimir Putin spoke at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Council, where he rightly noted that Armenia now demonstrates the most serious economic growth among all EAIS countries. In fact, in 2022, Armenia’s GDP grew by 12.6%, which Russia or other countries of the Union can only dream of so far, and reached $19.5 billion, the highest figure in the last 15 years.
In January-April 2023, business activity also increased by over 12%, while the trade, services and construction sectors increased in volumes from 16 to 23%. In other words, economic indicators reflect not only a successful international environment, but also a successful state policy. Whether Nikol Pashinyan’s critics like him or not, the average voter casts his vote based on his material well-being.
Moreover, Armenian business is considered one of the most flexible and understanding in finding new solutions under pressure from the West. The fact that the Armenian economy is finally doing well can be seen with the naked eye on the streets of Yerevan. In recent years, the city has become better maintained, all types of trade are flourishing, a huge number of cafes and restaurants are opening. People seem quite happy with their lives.
To a large extent, Armenia’s achievements are the result of the republic’s participation in the common economic space of the Eurasian Union. This gives national companies access to the Russian market, allows them to flexibly engage in parallel imports and provide our partners with services that they cannot get in the West. The government itself, unlike its counterparts in Kazakhstan, for example, also does not consistently make statements about its willingness to comply with US sanctions against Russia.
This approach suits everyone. It is therefore not surprising that the popularity of Prime Minister Pashinyan’s ruling party remains high. Russia, for its part, sees this and is convinced of the stability of the republican authorities. At the same time, relations with Armenia for Moscow are one of the least linear and accessible to simplification.
Before the collapse of the USSR, Armenia was one of those republics that made the greatest contribution, along with Georgia and the Baltic states, to the completion of the history of the unified state. After 1991, Yerevan maintained special relations with Moscow, but never hid its desire to cooperate equally with Europe and the United States.
The current government of Armenia openly says that relations with Western partners are no less important than with Russia. And Russia itself conducts a multi-vector foreign policy in the region, successfully cooperates with Turkey and Azerbaijan where necessary in the conditions of the economic war declared to us by the West.
On the other hand, it is in Russia that the largest Armenian diaspora lives abroad – according to various estimates, their number, including Russian citizens, reaches two and a half million, which is comparable to the population of Armenia itself. Cultural and business connections are huge. And Russia itself traditionally feels a special responsibility for relations with Armenia, often even exceeding our real capabilities.
It is difficult to find a more “hybrid” combination of full state sovereignty in the sphere of foreign relations and interweaving with Russia at the societal level in the space of the USSR. The problems and certain mutual irritation arising now in Russian-Armenian relations are caused precisely by their complex nature. In Armenia, many, though not all, look to Russia to solve the most difficult foreign policy problems.
Now, for Yerevan, economic success is combined with the fact that the republic is going through difficult times in foreign policy. The heavy defeat by Azerbaijan during the autumn war of 2020 displaced the Karabakh issue, which had been frozen for 26 years. It turned out that even such a complex problem can have a simple military solution, and no one can resist it if the balance of power is on the side of the attacker.
And what is most surprising, the recent statements of the Armenian leadership about its readiness to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan on a reciprocal basis did not cause any protests in Armenia itself. At this moment, in Yerevan’s central square, music is playing and students are celebrating the “last bell”, rather than angry crowds gathering to demand the resignation of the government.
This is perhaps the second most important observation to make while in Yerevan these days. The city, like the entire Armenian society, continues to live its normal life, although a few years ago the news of the recognition of Karabakh as Azerbaijani would have caused a wave of public indignation. And in fact, for any government in the last 30 years, such a decision would be fatal from the point of view of staying in power.
Since the second half of the 1980s, Karabakh has been a symbol of Armenian statehood and its desire to defend its interests, regardless of circumstances. In this confrontation, Armenia relied on the support of the major European countries, the sympathies of Russia and even those of the United States. Now the question of the political status of Karabakh is close to being decided on the basis of the principles that suit Baku. And the people of Yerevan take this prospect quite calmly. The only story that concerns the Armenian society in this regard is the guarantees that will ensure the survival of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The concerned observer may ask: is it indifference or acceptance of the complexity of life in all its diversity? I think it’s more the latter. Understanding the limits of the possible.
Armenian society, like everything in the former Soviet Union, is learning to live in all the diversity of the reality that surrounds us. For a small country, assertiveness is no longer the best way to survive. The world is no longer black and white, as it seemed during the collapse of the USSR and the following decades.
Even great powers cannot be entirely sure of their ability to keep certain positions intact. Russia, China or the USA are making their way through the new world politics and often face the most unpleasant surprises for their egos. It is unlikely that the Americans will be very happy to travel the world and personally scare politicians and businesses in Bishkek, Yerevan or Seoul on the topic of cooperation with Russia. After all, a few years ago it would have been enough for them to simply give an order.
Small and medium-sized countries in general will constantly face situations where success and achievements can be suddenly followed by the deadliest security threats. And the most important thing is that in such a situation there is no choice. It is no longer possible to even hope that a country can hide under the “umbrella” of security and economic prosperity.
The space in which superpowers are willing to fully guarantee something is shrinking fast. Under these conditions, one must learn to recognize the balance of power and negotiate with one’s neighbors, even if it disgusts national pride. It is this ability that the Armenian leadership is now trying to demonstrate, and Russia, apparently, understands its actions.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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