Analysts note that Kremlin puppet Denis Pushilin has recently made a large number of statements about the advancement of Russian forces in Donbas.
The ISW report indicates that the leader of the so-called “DPR” has probably lost touch with reality, as he began to think about the capture of Bakhmut, which would open the way to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, located 40 kilometers to the northwest.
“The founder of PMC” Wagner “Yevgeny Prigozhin previously claimed that the average speed of Russian advance around Bakhmut was about 100 meters per day, and it took Russian troops 8 months to move from the occupied Popasna Luhansk region and Svetlodarsk to their current positions in the Bakhmut area (a distance of 25 km and 22 km respectively),” the experts emphasize.
However, Pushilin, stubbornly ignoring these data, continued to dream about the capture of Ugledar, which will allow Russian troops to launch offensive operations on Kurakhovo, Marinka and Pokrovsk, despite the fact that Russian troops have not been able to capture Marinka since March 17, 2022, when the Russian Ministry of Defense falsely reported that they had captured the settlement.
In addition, the gunman spokethat Russia would capture Avdiivka, but did not give any explanation as to how the occupiers plan to break through the almost nine-year-old Ukrainian fortifications around the settlement.
“Pushilin’s expectations about the hypothetical capture of Bakhmut further demonstrate that the Russians continue to face problems in accurately assessing the relationship between time and space, given their military potential,” the analysts explained.
Key takeaways from ISW:
- The introduction of Russian conventional forces to the front line in Bakhmut offset the climax of the Wagner PMC offensive and kept the initiative of Russian operations around the city. The December 27 ISW forecast that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut was reaching a climax turned out to be inaccurate.
- ISW does not predict the fall of Bakhmut, and it is extremely unlikely that Russian forces will be able to carry out a sudden cordon of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut.
- Russian conventional forces can replace the expended forces of the Wagner PMC by redeploying them from Bakhmut to the front line in the Zaporozhye region.
- The RF Ministry of Defense may be trying to completely drive out the “Wagnerites” near Bakhmut in order to create a traditional Russian military command structure as the only winner around Bakhmut, assuming that Russian forces will take the city.
- Ukrainian officials continue to support the ISW assessment that an imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action and have suggested that Ukrainian forces are planning to launch a larger counteroffensive.
- Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to expose Russian military failures in Ukraine.
- Russia continues to use anti-terrorism laws as a weapon to justify domestic repression.
- Russian troops continued limited ground attacks to regain lost ground on the Svatovo-Kremennaya line on 31 January.
- Russian troops continued offensive operations along the front line in the Donetsk region.
- Russian forces are unlikely to benefit much anywhere in eastern Ukraine from their localized advance around Vuhledar.
- Probably, Russian troops prefer sabotage and reconnaissance activities of territories in southern Ukraine.
- Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov acknowledged Russia’s mobilization failures.
- The invaders continue to use youth recruitment and educational programs to strengthen social control over the occupied territories.
