/ world today news/ And where did you get the idea that the unipolar (that is, the American) world has ended before our eyes and multipolarity has reigned? There’s no way something like this could happen. America will be hegemon forever.
This statement is from two professors from the well-known Dartmouth College (New Hampshire, USA) in their article in the new issue of Foreign Affairs. And it’s great as a textbook on the topic: “If you can’t, but you really want to, then you can.” And they really want the world to be American forever.
The proof method at first glance seems convincing because it is full of arithmetic. The authors lay out indicators of power, especially military power, and assign points for each indicator. It turns out that the closest competitor – China – for several decades will not be equal to the United States in all indicators of military power. Where are China’s 12 noisy nuclear submarines versus America’s 68 quiet ones? Also, China may have a large GDP, but according to the calculations, the numbers are inflated – again, arithmetic rules.
Here, by the way, we are not talking about multipolarity, but only about two poles, as in the last century. But even arithmetic does not show us two – China is not doing well. What if it is with Russia? And it doesn’t work like that. Well, if there were a few more “poles” – there’s some India there, not to mention the others … It’s just funny.
Then they convince us not to get upset. The multipolar world, for example, in the 19th century or between the two world wars is very bad, there are continuous wars. (And today, isn’t there?) Since there are several leading countries roughly comparable in terms of military power, they all seesaw back and forth, forming fragile coalitions and pacts. In addition, the technologies at that time worked quickly: ten years – and rearm, now it is slower. All in all, do we really want it again in this fragile time?
And now a concession: well, today the power of the United States is not as absolute as it used to be, that is, the nature of unipolarity has changed. But that’s it.
It is easy for the credulous reader not to notice the main dirty trick presented to him literally in the first lines of the work: these are arguments about what power is. Many, it turns out, think of power as influence, that is, “the ability to get others to do what you want.” But in reality it is not quite like that: strength and power are in resources, especially military and economic.
Very interesting. And what about the country’s ability to live as you want without asking anyone’s permission for anything – isn’t that a power? No, our two authors, fond of simple arithmetic, see everything as merely the physical ability of someone to win a war. And if there is no ability, then there is no power, you will not force anyone to do anything, and you are not a pole of influence in the world.
After all, this magic of prime numbers easily fogs the brain. Mid-1930s: The British Empire, by all arithmetic calculations, is so much stronger than all the other key states that no one really disputes that it will be a superpower for centuries. No scenarios even suggest that anyone can even shake this military might with its resources from India, Africa, Middle East. But where is this superpower in the mid-40s? And in the 50s? An incredible coincidence, you know. It doesn’t count.
And that’s not all. It is easy to see that the two professors are not even thinking about the past, but about the previous century: there are nations, big and small, each nation has a state, the state has military power, and we compare it.
But today’s world is much more complex, with different lobbies operating across borders – information, financial, medical, oil and gas, green and many others. And we have not yet begun the long and complicated conversation about the power of ideas, or such a factor as the fatigue of a people or peoples from the endless processing of brains. Even higher mathematics will not be sufficient to derive general formulas from this.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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