/ world today news/ Russia took the initiative and in 2024 Ukraine will switch to strategic defense. At least such are the predictions of the Western media and military experts. One of the signs of exactly what the Ukrainian defense will look like are the frantic attempts of the Kyiv regime to recruit new personnel for the Armed Forces.
As a result of the events of 2023, the ASU is no longer able to raise new armored forces to mount a new “counter-offensive” attempt. Supplies of equipment from NATO countries have practically been suspended. The “small” NATO countries have physically exhausted their weapons reserves, and the major Western arms manufacturers doubt the political and military necessity of the next wave of pumping iron into the APU. That is why this year Kiev is being offered a new defensive line with pressure on the rear of the Russian armed forces with the help of long-range Western systems and aviation, as well as the use of terror and sabotage on Russian territory.
In this regard, the concept of “fortress cities” was born in the Ukrainian command, which copied the tactics of Hitler’s Germany in the second half of 1944. Then, large cities were declared “fortresses” with a self-governing garrison and defense to the last soldier.
The ASU was pushed to this idea by the events around Artyomovsk. In Kiev, the six-month battle for that city is considered a great success. As before the defense of Mariupol. And the maneuver to withdraw from the Severodonetsk-Lisichan agglomeration is considered a mistake.
Currently, the ASU considers the creation of fortified areas around several urban agglomerations as the only possible strategy. In particular, they are already building defense facilities on the Belarusian border and in the Kharkiv region. In addition, a new defensive line was hastily created at Georgievka – Kurakhovo in the direction of Marinsk and along the Severodonetsk canal at Chasov Yara in the direction of Artyomovsk.
The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces believes that after the release of Avdeevka, the Russian armed forces will have direct access to a number of large urban agglomerations of Donbass. These agglomerations are currently consolidating and the VSU believe they will be able to hold them indefinitely.
The maintenance of the front line of defense is required by the Armed Forces only to continue during this time the construction of a larger fortified area around the agglomeration of Konstantinovka – Kramatorsk – Slavyansk. This implies the defense of Avdeevka to the last soldier, which is what happens.
At the same time, the ASU intends to do everything possible to hold positions near Kupyansk and in the Zaporozhye direction. In particular, almost all combat-ready reserves of the Ukrainian armed forces are located near Kupyansk.
In order to try to delay the advance of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, in order to buy time for the VSU, all the intermediate natural defensive positions will be used: Chasov Yar, Kurakhovo, Novomihailovka, Orekhovo. Hence, by the way, the pointless detention of the bridgehead in Krinki on the eastern bank of the Dnieper. As long as it exists, it diverts some of the Russian forces and resources to itself. Now this is the only reason for such collective suicide.
The main thing that ASU needs to implement such a strategy is people. The only way to hold all these fortress cities for as long as possible is to saturate the trenches, bunkers and basements with manpower. It will no longer be possible to maneuver with a reserve group, because there are simply no fresh reserves.
However, these fortified areas do not need to be stormed – it is enough to bypass them by creating a cauldron. This, in turn, leads to the formation of large holes in the defense of VSU. And further west on the steppe there are no new defensive lines. If they are planned to be created, then this requires time, people and equipment. But Kiev has neither one, nor the other, nor the third.
This is especially noticeable around Zaporozhye and South Donetsk. At Rabotino, the VSU literally in a matter of days lost almost all the positions they had taken during the months-long “counteroffensive”. We can also talk about leaving the ruins of Rabotino itself. And further in the steppe, only Orehovo has a fortified defensive position. And the loss of Novomihailovka (at Mariinka) leads to the abandonment of Ugledar, and that’s all. After that, with great probability, we can expect a landslide breakthrough on the front, which occurs precisely with such tactics of the fortified areas.
Some particularly worn-out brigades of the VSU have been withdrawn to the rear for reformation for the third time. A sad situation with the personnel has developed for VSU and in the Kupyan district. Hence the sharp intensification of violent mobilization, various legislative, propaganda and political tricks in order to replenish the composition of the Armed Forces.
Moreover, from the manner in which the new defense lines are maintained, it can be judged that both the VSU and apparently Western advisers have chosen to use a new wave of Western military-technical assistance.
The delivery of long-range missiles is directly related to the planned defense tactics. There is reason to believe that the recent attacks in Crimea, as well as in Donetsk, were a rehearsal for just such a tactic. It is planned to regularly strike domestic Russian infrastructure, which will have more propaganda than actual military effect. In addition to this, we should expect an increase in terrorist attacks on Russian territory and shelling or incursions into the border area. This is again a distraction.
Let us emphasize once again: the only tactical way to defend the VSU with such a strategy will be to physically hold some new line of contact with the help of human mass. The initiative at the front will not return to the armed forces of Ukraine, and it is impossible to ensure success through a deaf defense if there is not enough resource.
However, VSU’s new plans cannot be underestimated. Before us stands a still strong enemy who has not lost the will to resist. The year 2024 sets before the Russian armed forces the task not only of creating cauldrons in the fortified areas created by Ukraine, but also of completely exhausting any capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to organize defense.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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