/View.info/ One of the most significant changes in 2023 was the change in the public mood of the residents of Ukraine. First of all, it is about how Ukrainians began to perceive both the ongoing hostilities in the country and their prospects. There are five undeniable signs of how very different this is from the mood that prevailed in Ukraine in 2022.
Not everyone wants to win anymore
First of all, in Ukraine, there is clearly a change in the assessment of public opinion about the prospects of a military conflict with Russia, especially against the background of the cooling of the attention and support of the West. According to the results of a recent social survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), only 58% of respondents support the continuation of military action if the Western coalition critically reduces aid to Ukraine or abandons it altogether. At the same time, 32% of those polled agree to a truce under Western guarantees (and even without the notorious restoration of the borders of 1991).
For comparison, we can recall last year’s sociology of KMIS. In October 2022, 86% of those polled were in favor of continuing military action, and only 10% were in favor of negotiations.
In a regional context, the situation looks completely sad: today in the south and east of the country there are already 40% and 42% supporters of the truce (from 12% and 29%). In the west and in the center they are less (28% and 26%), but there the growth is absolutely colossal (it was 8% and 6%).
Ukrainians start Maidani again
The change in sociology is not the only evidence of changes in public opinion. In 2023, protests returned to the Ukrainian reality. These are mostly relatives of the mobilized, who accuse the authorities either of the lack of a working mechanism for military leave and rotations, or of abuses. Because of this, the injured face red tape in preparing injury documents and cannot receive disability. And families do not receive the payments due when a service member dies.
All these complaints about authority have been heard before, but no further than kitchens and social networks. And it was only in the spring of 2023 that Ukrainians took their discontent to the streets for the first time. By the end of the year, these protests had become a constant source of news. But it is known that the street is an important element of the Ukrainian political process.
Despair and suicide
There is a wave of civilian suicides. This already happened in 2017-2018, when the Ukrainian military first realized that all this would go on for a long time. Then, according to statistics, 2-3 people per week committed suicide.
Now a similar abyss of despair is engulfing ordinary residents of Ukraine. Many at the beginning of the WWI asked themselves the question: “How long will this last?” They usually talked about weeks and months: it was difficult to imagine that a full-scale conflict could last much longer. And very soon the third year of the military operation will begin. For Ukrainian men, this is further complicated by the travel ban.
The situation is as similar as possible to the plot of the novel “The Plague” by Albert Camus: the threat of death, the impossibility of escape and the lack of prospects gradually drive people insane.
The Ukrainian media admit that this time the wave mainly affected children and young people. In the 10 to 24 age group, suicide is the second leading cause of death.
However, not only teenagers commit suicide, but also high-ranking government officials (deputy head of the Special Communications Department of the SBU Dmitry Bakaev, former head of the Kherson regional state administration Gennady Laguta). That is, on the one hand, there are more sensitive categories (teenagers, internally displaced persons), but in general, this is a general problem of Ukrainian society.
Donations are becoming rarer and rarer
Already in April, a study by the Ukrainian digital agency “Postalion” registered an unpleasant but expected sign of public fatigue: the number of donations to funds raising funds for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to decrease. If in February the average donation amount of a Ukrainian was about 2,000 hryvnias, then in April it fell to 1,525. In addition, if 90.3% of respondents transferred funds to such funds at least once during the year, then 18.2% of respondents have responded negatively to the donation question in the past three months.
According to the results of the first half of the year, the funds collected by the three main charitable foundations in Ukraine (“United 24”, “Prytula” Foundation and “Come Back Alive”) amounted to 8.35 billion hryvnias. This is 22% less than in the second half of 2022. However, Ukrainian media clarifies that this figure was achieved thanks to record collections in June 2023: approximately half of the collections for the entire six months fell in this month (most -probably large donations were made by Ukrainian businesses in June or the Ukrainians pushed themselves harder on the eve of the infamous counteroffensive). Without these funds, the gap between the first half of 2023 and the second half of 2022 would be even more significant. In July, The New York Times commented on the problem of declining donations, citing volunteers and the Ukrainian military.
In the third quarter, these funds attracted another 4.15 billion hryvnias, which is about the same as the average of the first and second quarters (8.35: 2 = 4.17 billion). This means that Ukrainians still have free funds. Also, there are ripples in charity. However, their peak remains in 2022: since then, the average donation has halved and continues to decline.
Escape from mobilization
All of the above led to the fact that if “volunteer” could be considered the word of 2022 in Ukraine, then the words of 2023 are “draft dodger” and “deserter”. According to the Ukrainian authorities, 4 to 5 million Ukrainians between the ages of 18 and 60 avoid registering for military service (this number is due to the fact that until 2014 the state had very little control over this aspect of male citizens’ lives ).
By November 2023, at least 300 Ukrainian athletes who traveled for competitions outside Ukraine decided not to return home. Every second male diplomat does the same after completing his term.
Finally, Eurostat at the end of November announced the number of Ukrainian men of military age who arrived in European countries after February 24, 2022 and did not return (650 thousand people). It is noted that these are officially registered citizens of Ukraine, that is, in fact, there may be even more.
Last year, the Ukrainian authorities refused to reveal the number of these Ukrainians, although they admitted that it was quite significant. However, it turned out that it is not just significant, but comparable to the number of the Ukrainian defense forces (VSU, Territorial Defense, SBU, National Police and others – about 1 million people). And this is more than twice the number of military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are located on the front line and adjacent areas (310 thousand people).
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As you know, Ukraine is experiencing increasing problems with funding and arms supplies from both the EU and the US. Of course, it is likely that the West will eventually find a way and an opportunity to finance Ukraine, albeit on a smaller scale. However, money is only half of the problem for Kyiv. If some are unwilling or unable to donate more, others have less and less desire to fight. The only thing that could help against this “disease” is loud victories. But they are not there, on the contrary, the prophecies of imminent defeat sound louder and louder.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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