/Pogled.info/ One of the most obvious problems of last year was the low efficiency of decision-making for attacks against Ukrainian air defense systems, headquarters and convoys. Since then, the situation has improved significantly. We tell you how we managed to achieve this.
The other day, Tsarigrad told how Russia is turning the flywheel of its air offensive, striking both the enemy’s tactical defense zone and its deep rear.
In the past few days, Russian aviation and missile forces have carried out several powerful strikes on a tank factory in Kharkiv, successfully hit a missile and artillery depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Mykolaiv Oblast, hit an industrial site in Uman, Cherkassy Oblast, and an infrastructure facility in Kryvyi Rih.
Flock “Mushkato” visited the 48th arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kalininsky District of Vinnytsia Region and a military airport located in the same area. In addition, a number of sites in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Cherkasy regions were attacked.
Overall, it feels like Friday through Monday saw the same number of strikes as all of last week, which confirms our view that the air campaign is just gaining momentum and the intensity of the attack will increase.
In the stream of news, the media drew attention to the attack of “Iskander” on a train with armored cars in the Mykolaiv region.
“Intelligence means of the Russian Armed Forces in the Mykolaiv region identified the location of the loading of a train with armored military equipment of the 38th Separate Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intended to reinforce Ukrainian troops on the line of contact,” it said statement of the military department.
It should be noted that this is not the only such case recently: on September 25, a drone captured a missile strike on an equipment train near the village of Rodinskoe in the Ukrainian army-occupied part of the DNR.
It was then reported that the composition was fired using the Tornado-S (modernized Smerch) multiple launch system (MLRS).
However, the munitions explosion was almost identical to the one filmed during the loading of Ukrainian marines in the Mykolaiv area, suggesting that in both cases the trains were fired with Iskanders.
However, it is not so important what the enemy has caught. Much more importantly, the Russian military has increased the speed of targeting and the speed of decision-making, which allows it to strike the enemy at the time of loading and unloading of equipment, and not the next day.
Speed matters
As early as April 2022, we noted that the Russian army has very limited capabilities to conduct reconnaissance deep in the enemy’s rear, and therefore cannot stop the supply of weapons and military equipment from Poland.
Later, in open sources, information repeatedly appeared that the Russian headquarters were systematically late in making decisions, intelligence data was stuck, was not received in full and did not play the role it should play in modern conflicts.
The reason, more broadly, was that despite rejecting the concept of mass armies, Russia, prior to the beginning of the Northern Military District, had never been able to build an army capable of waging network warfare.
Separate elements of it were created, such as battalion tactical groups, good air defense and radio-electronic warfare. But it was not possible to acquire good communications, a large satellite constellation and automated battlefield control systems that could “stitch” separate elements into a single combat mechanism.
The intelligence chain turned out to be weak, communication was even worse, and decisions requiring an instant reaction turned out to be limited to senior officers, that is, people constantly occupied with solving not only combat, but also administrative and economic tasks.
This weakness was visible to everyone: both to Russia’s friends and to its enemies.
“As it turned out during six months of SVO, the main thing in missiles is not their beautiful flight at low altitudes, but the reconnaissance of the target,” wrote the volunteer, blogger and great patriot of Russia Alexei Zhivov in his Telegram channel.
“Cheaper American missiles for the Himars proved to be better precision weapons, given their huge advantage in reconnaissance and targeting,” he further wrote.
The same idea was given to their demonic flock by the enemy propagandists.
“The armed forces of the Russian Federation are blind; their intelligence is poor, and their artillery and long-range weapons are not able to hit moving targets. That is, when the Ukrainian units have already gone on the attack and are rushing forward, the Russian units simply have nothing to do to cover it up,” ex-Israeli army officer Yigal Levin grimaced on his Trans-Ukrainian channel.
“Helicopters and airplanes also do not save, as the Russians do not know how to use them and constantly lose expensive vehicles hit by Ukrainian air defense systems and MANPADS,” he added.
He who laughs last laughs best
And now a year has passed. The Russian army was not defeated, the land corridor to the Crimea was not broken, and the tactics of quick breakthroughs on the pickup front of the “brilliant Zaluzhny” did not lead to a quick victory, but to an endless stream of coffins.
As our non-brothers say in such cases, what happened? Something terrible happened: the Russian army adapted. Maybe not yet completely, but the trend is obvious.
How the work of the headquarters has changed, what structural changes have occurred in them – of course, no one will tell us. But in the open sources you can accumulate a lot of information showing in which direction the changes have developed.
In March of this year, it became known that the Ministry of Defense is testing drones designed for operational interaction with artillery. The idea was that our winged vehicles would know their position thanks to data from the GLONASS global navigation satellite system.
If you put a laser rangefinder on the device, then at the moment of detecting a target, it can calculate its exact coordinates. This calculation is completely simple and can be performed even by a weak processor.
The UAV then transmits the coordinates of the target to the gunners, who can immediately open fire on it. In this case, the data is not transmitted verbally from the drone operator to the headquarters, but from the headquarters to the artillery position, but is immediately integrated by the drone into the fire control system of a self-propelled gun or MLRS.
This means that our Msta, Tornado-C or Tornado-G self-propelled guns (the latter two are upgraded Smerch and Grad) can receive external homing and work on identified targets after pressing a few buttons, not three.four oral presentations.
No word on which drones are modified, but there aren’t many options. Priority candidates for modernization are the Orlan-30, which are equipped with laser pointers, with the help of which Krasnopol projectiles are directed to the target. It is possible that the lighter Orlan-10 will also receive new equipment.
The long arm of Moscow
In mid-May, Ukrainian media published photos of the remains of our Orion drone shot down over the Kherson region. Then everyone’s attention was drawn to the fact that a small KAB-20 adjustable bomb was found under the wing of the device.
But in light of what we know about the modernization of lighter drones, another thing is important: they are in the military and flying behind the front lines.
For a long time, reconnaissance-strike UAVs similar to the American “Predators” and “Reapers” were unloved stepchildren of our military leadership, and only immediately before the start of the special operation, the situation began to change.
At the end of 2021, the Kronstadt company built a large drone production plant in Dubna, Moscow Region, and in July 2022 switched to a three-shift work schedule.
And now we see that our army has these machines. If we take into account the direction in which the Orlans are being modernized, it is logical to assume that the more powerful Orions are now used not only for reconnaissance of the enemy’s rear, but also for the operational issue of target designations.
Compared to Orlan, these drones have fundamentally greater capabilities. If “Orlan-30” can carry only 8 kg of payload for 120 kilometers, then “Orlan” takes from 60 to 200 kg of payload (this can be both weapons and equipment) and can fly 300 km.
Therefore, if we see hits on the front line, it is most likely that the capture is from Orlan, but if the arrival is recorded more than a hundred kilometers behind the front line, it may already be the work of Orion.
In general, the “Orion” – “Iskander” combination looks like a very promising duo, capable of cleaning the Ukrainian rear from the most dangerous and unpleasant for us systems and people.
What next?
Despite all the positive aspects of the observed situation, we must understand that we are still far from decisive success. First of all, because Ukraine is a very large country with a simply huge number of industrial enterprises and developed infrastructure, which makes it extremely difficult to detect military cargo in motion.
“This is very difficult. This is a very non-linear process, as it turned out. The command chose a different path: they are trying to strike not on the move, but at the moment of accumulation in warehouses. Unfortunately, at the same time, the logistics highway remains intact” , commented on what was happening, the security expert of the DNR, the first minister of state Andrey Pinchuk.
The main conclusion we can draw so far is that Russia has created a tool to “cleanse the Ukrainian backside” and is now learning how to use it. Moreover, what is especially joyful is that the situation is such that we can afford errors and omissions, but the enemy lives and acts until the first error and the first delay.
Who will emerge victorious from this contest is a rhetorical question. The enemy may display wonders of cunning and resourcefulness, but the law of great numbers and the constant increase of our capabilities in the air make the outcome of this confrontation a foregone conclusion.
Translation: SM
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2023-10-04 13:02:03
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