Robertus Andrianto, CNBC Indonesia
Market
Sunday, 06/08/2023 12:37 WIB
Photo: Stock Illustration (CNBC Indonesia/Andrean Kristianto)
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Next week’s financial markets will be injected with important macro data releases for investors to observe, starting from announcements of Indonesia’s economic growth to US inflation.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce economic growth data for the first quarter of 2023 on Monday (7/8/2023).
The market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 12 institutions also estimates economic growth to reach 4.98% (year on year/yoy) and 3.74% compared to the previous quarter (quarter to quarter/qtq).
For the record, Indonesia’s economy grew 5.03 (yoy) in the first quarter of 2023 and contracted 0.92% (qtq).
The poll result is lower than the government’s projection. Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati estimates that economic growth will be around 5%.
Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia projects that the Indonesian economy will grow by around 5.1% in the April-June 2023 period.
If the poll is in line with the results of the BPS announcement, growth in the second quarter of this year will be the lowest since the third quarter of 2023 or in the last six quarters.
Then, on Tuesday (8/8/2023) Indonesia’s main trading partner, China, will announce the trade balance along with exports and imports.
Trading Economics predicts China’s exports will grow negative 14% in the July period. Meanwhile, imports grew negatively by 5.2%.
This shows that the level of consumption and China’s economic condition is still sluggish.
Of course this needs to be watched out for because it can affect Indonesia’s exports to China such as coal and palm oil.
Likewise with Indonesian manufacturers who diligently import machinery and capital goods from China.
The sluggish consumption and economic conditions will be more visible from the inflation announcement the next day, (9/8/2023).
Trading Economics consensus expects China’s inflation in July to be a deflation of 0.3% year on year. However, monthly inflation will experience inflation of 0.2%.
Then, the United States (US) will announce the most important data, namely inflation.
Trading Economics consensus expects US inflation to remain 4.8% year on year in July. Likewise, monthly inflation remained at 0.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation fell 0.2 basis points to 3.1% from 3.3% in June.
Inflation data is important to watch because it forms the basis for determining the US Federal Reserve/The Fed’s central bank in determining interest rates, which can move world financial markets.
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