Jakarta –
Extreme hot weather, El Nino, has caused agricultural conditions in Indonesia to decline. This bad weather phenomenon has been going on since mid-2023, but its impact has been prolonged until this year.
This El Nino causes very little rainfall so that agricultural land experiences drought. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) revealed that in 2023 when El Nino occurred, the harvested area fell by 0.24 million ha or 2.2% to 10.21 million hectares (ha) compared to 2022.
The decrease in land area will result in a decrease in total rice production in 2023. Based on BPS Area Sample Frame (KSA) data, total rice production in 2023 will be 30.96 million tonnes. This figure is 580 thousand tons or 1.84% lower than 2022.
Meanwhile, rice consumption figures for 2023 are greater, namely an increase of 1.39% or 420 thousand tonnes compared to 2022. In 2022 rice consumption will be 30.2 million tonnes, while in 2023 it will be 30.62 million tonnes.
The decline in production forced the government to take steps to import. Imports carried out in 2023 will total 3 million tons. BPS said rice imports increased 613.61% compared to 2022.
The condition of the decline in harvested area will continue until early 2024. BPS data states that January-April this year is estimated at 3.52 million ha, a decrease of 0.69 million ha or 16.48% compared to the same period last year.
BPS predicts rice production in the first 4 months of this year is 10.71 million tons, down from last year’s 12.98 million tons. The percentage reduction was quite significant, namely 17.52% or 2.28 million tonnes.
Seeing that there is still a shortage of domestic production, the government is anticipating this shortage with imports. In 2024, the government’s rice import quota will be 3.6 million tons. The initial quota was 2 million tons and was added to 1.6 million tons.
With El Nino, Thailand-Vietnam can import to Indonesia
Not only Indonesia, countries that are suppliers of imported rice to Indonesia, namely Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar, are also experiencing El Nino. Thailand and Vietnam are the largest countries that export rice to Indonesia.
Both countries can still export to various countries, one of which is Indonesia even though they are hit by El Nino. Why is that?
Quoted from Vietnam Plus, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives in Thailand estimates that there will be a decline in rice production in the 2023-2024 harvest season, especially the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
Rice production is estimated to decrease by 871,000 tonnes, down 3.27% to 25.8 million tonnes. This decrease is also in line with the decline in land area to a total of 62.4 million rai (9.98 million ha). This represents a reduction of 602,000 rai or 0.96% from the previous year.
However, rice consumption in Thailand remains lower than production. On average every year, Thailand produces around 20 million tonnes of rice, while consumption is only 11-13 million tonnes.
“The estimated decline in rice in 2023 for Thailand is 871 thousand tons, down 3.17%. In Thailand’s case, it can export because its production is greater than its consumption level. Production is 20 million tons, consumption is 11 million tons per year, population is 69 million people, 1/ 4 residents from Indonesia,” said researcher from the Indonesian Center for Reform on Economics (CORE), Eliza Mardian detikcomquoted Thursday (7/3/2024).
Meanwhile, Vietnam, even though it was hit by El Nino, rice production in that country is still strong. Rice production in Vietnam in 2023 will increase by 1-2% compared to 2022. Quoted from Nikkei Asia, Vietnam Customs said the country’s rice production will be more than 43 million tons.
Eliza said that rice land productivity in Vietnam is indeed better than Indonesia. On the other hand, the population in this country is not as large as Indonesia, so the surplus can be used for export.
“Vietnam is indeed higher in terms of productivity than Indonesia, and the population is not as large as Indonesia, so the surplus can be exported. We (Indonesia) have a large amount of rice, but the need is also large because the population is large and very dependent on one rice commodity,” ” he explained.
Apart from Vietnam and Thailand, Indonesia also imported rice from India. Eliza said that even though India is a country with a large population, its people do not only depend on rice.
“They are diversifying their food. The proportion of rice as food is 43.5%, wheat 40.4%, Ragi (grains) 12.6%, the rest is local food. This is different from Indonesia, which is 83% dependent on rice,” concluded Eliza.
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2024-03-06 23:00:20
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