In between 2020 y 2030 it is estimated that they will occur 49,119 additional deaths in the world due to measles, rubella, human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B, meningitis A and yellow fever. Deaths that respond to the interruption of vaccination due to the effect it had on the global immunization coverage of these pathologies is the emergence of Covid-19, a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A disturbance that will have effects throughout this decade, as stated in a study recently published in ‘The Lancet Global Health’.
The largest global emergency of the last century led to confinements and reductions in health care that dealt a severe blow to immunization campaigns against vaccine-preventable diseases. In 2020 there was a 33% decrease in the number of doses administered against diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus, DTaP, that same year more than 23 million children did not receive basic vaccines through routine immunization services, which represented an increase of 3.7 million children with compared to 2019.
Although the recovery of vaccination schedules began in July 2020, the immunization data was still negative in 2021. In 2023, a new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF with data from 2022 showed, after a negative trend, an improvement in immunization data. More than 4 million more children were vaccinated than the previous year. Immunization services did not reach 20.5 million minors, of which 14.3 million were zero-dose children.
If the recovery continues to be delayed in 2025, they estimate 967,635 additional deaths due to the interruption in the 2020–30 vaccination years
These figures reflected an improvement compared to the years of the pandemic, but they are still far from the figures of 2019, when 18.4 million minors did not complete the program, and 12.9 million without any dose. A disturbance that the study published in ‘The Lancet’ estimates that It will be noticed throughout this decade.
EFFECTS OF VACCINATION UNTIL 2030
The study carried out with data from 112 low- and middle-income countries shows that, as evidenced by the WHO, a recovery in global immunization coverage has begun, but that this is “geographically variable.” “This disruption has resulted in under-immunized cohorts and disrupted progress in reducing the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases,” the research notes.
The countries studied with those with a higher global burden of diseases preventable through preventive vaccination strategies. As a result, it is estimated that there will be 49,119 additional deaths, 90.68% due to measles, 7.53% due to yellow fever. If in 2025 the recovery continues to be delayed, they calculate 967,635 additional deaths due to the interruption in the 2020–30 vaccination years. Figures that will occur especially on the African continent and in Southeast Asia.
If all countries recovered the immunization campaigns prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the authors estimate that 78.9% of excess deaths could be avoided
Until 2030, the effectiveness of vaccine coverage will be reduced due to the interruption suffered: 2.66% of deaths will no longer be avoided. In this way, during this period of time, instead of avoiding 37,378,194 deaths, they will be avoided 36.410.559, almost a million less than estimated.
Given these results, the authors call for recovery programs. “Measles and yellow fever mitigation measures were particularly effective in reducing excess burden in the short term. Furthermore, the high long-term effect of the HPV vaccine as an important cervical cancer prevention tool justifies continued immunization efforts after interruption,” they defend. If all countries recovered the immunization campaigns prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the authors estimate that the 78.9% of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030.
2024-04-01 22:00:00
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