/ world today news/ The other day they kidnapped the neighbor from my friend’s garage. He was repairing the roof for the winter, when tough guys with low foreheads came with assault rifles, pushed him into the “Nivata” and dragged him to the TCC. Such scenes are played out throughout the Ukrainian Donetsk region. Three or four days of preparation – and the fresh cannon meat is sent to Avdeevka. “So that they don’t drive them far,” the locals explain such zeal.
Approximately the same thing happens in Kharkiv, where patrols of the military districts /so-called TCC, territorial centers for registration and registration/ stand for hours in front of the entrances of the apartment blocks, waiting for someone to come out, and only women and children dare to go down the subway trap.
Zelensky’s despondency and exasperation at the sharp decline in Western aid, which is increasingly portrayed colorfully by the foreign media, manifests itself inside Ukraine mainly through increased measures to hunt down the male population. Yes, the further you are from the front line, the calmer it is, and in Kiev, bustling with life, only the rare air strikes remind you of some kind of war.
But the work goes on anyway: the “armor” and deferrals are canceled, the decisions of the medical commissions are reviewed, the mobilization of disabled people and students on academic leave is started, the “joining into the service” of men with the III disability group is allowed, and people with serious disabilities and mutilations, receive the status of “limited fit”.
So if you want to know how the collapse of the “the whole world is with us” model practically affects Ukrainian society, then the short answer is “not at all for now”. The political decision to fight “to victory,” as Time magazine described in its famous report, surely rests on America’s billions. But in Zelensky’s office, the topic of stopping hostilities and starting peace negotiations is taboo.
„Faced with the alternative of freezing the war or losing it, Zelensky sees no choice but to continue. “I don’t think Ukraine can afford to be war-weary,” he says. Even if someone is internally tired, many do not admit it. The President, to the smallest extent”reports Time, and the whole long text exudes a kind of hopelessness.
The little unshaven man in the green shirt is so fixated on the messianic idea that he is no longer able to switch. He even stopped joking on dates, no time for jokes these days – “in his foreign trips and presidential phone calls, he must convince world leaders that aid to Ukraine is in their own national interest, that it will, as Biden put it, ‘pay dividends.’ This is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve as global crises multiply.
Thus, two logical questions arise: how long can this continue and does the change in the attitude of the West towards the Ukrainian issue mean a turning point in the situation?
The last frontier
The continuation of the war, in addition to the material and financial part, is based on two main conditions for Ukraine: the presence of manpower and public support. They are trying to deal with the former, although there are increasingly loud complaints from various front-line battalion commanders that the troops are being bled.
Even Time did not fail to report that some commanders began to refuse to carry out orders to attack, even if they came directly from the highest post. For example, some unnamed units of the Ukrainian armed forces refused to storm Gorlovka, citing a lack of weapons, artillery and recruits.
„They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line” said the publication’s source, who is said to be close to senior officials. “But we won’t be able to win the war that way. ” Therefore, immediate plans include personnel changes with the dismissal of “at least one minister as well as a senior general responsible for the counteroffensive to ensure accountability for Ukraine’s slow progress on the front.”
However, such measures are unlikely to help if society also moves into a defensive position. Discontent is carefully quelled by all possible means. First of all, informative. “At the level of sensations, in everyday life, there is a strong fatigue from the war, but it intersects with the infantile feelings of faith in the bright future,” Ukrainian political scientist Kiril Molchanov explains to Regnum.
The social situation is tense, but society at the mass level watches the TV madhouse, where only victories are shown. Where should they see the signals of the end of Western support?
For now, those who will are best heard “suffer a little longer”, and forums are held in Kiev to discuss post-war reconstruction and various types of future strategies.
Official sociology also demonstrates unanimity on fundamental issues. Although there is already a cautious decrease in the number of those ready to fight to the end and an increase in those who believe that the West is getting tired of Ukraine, his support is weakening and he wants concessions from Ukraine to Russia – from 15% in September 2022. to 30% in October 2023. And KMIS data almost sensationally show a drop in confidence in the president from 91% to 76% (with a sharp distrust of the parliament and the government).
Purely technologically, this is an interconnected process: there is no success at the front – there is no content for “victory” – there is a decrease in the level of optimism. On top of that is the expectation of a harsh winter without light and heat, as well as the very difficult economic situation.
If in telephone surveys Ukrainians are most likely to lie about their political position, they talk quite openly about the decline in living standards. And in fact, the decision on personnel changes not only in the army, but also in the cabinet of ministers can be dictated by real data about the catastrophic decline in the rating of the ruling party.
As predicted by political scientist Mikhail Pavliv, in the near future Prime Minister Shmigal will resign, and his place will most likely be taken by Oksana Markarova, former Minister of Finance and former ambassador of Ukraine to the USA. However, he tells IA Regnum, this is unlikely to help as “the decision that Zelensky is now a closed project was indeed made by both the Americans and the British, who were his curators for a very long time.”
Thus, systematic publications in the Western media, which talk about the futility of the “counter-offensive”, the depressed mood in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the deterioration of the prospects of the Ukrainian project, not only give grounds for stopping various types of support, but also prepare the ground for an election next spring that will remove the main obstacle – this same indomitable will of the small, unshaven man.
The sources of the agency are convinced that a decision will be made before the New Year, and this points to another sociological survey of “Rating”: absolutely complimentary to the first person, but two-thirds devoted to the issues of holding elections and the perception of voters about a potential “party of war veterans”.
Course change
The guarantor of the sociological research, which in many ways was formative and introduced into the public consciousness the very idea of the admissibility of a plebiscite in military conditions, raised several important organizational questions. First of all, organizing a vote for Ukrainians abroad and internally displaced persons. Without this reserve, it is hardly possible to secure a decisive advantage for the formation of an opposition government.
And there is no doubt that it will be exactly oppositional. True, in a specific sense: “anti-green”.
„All in all, the long story of a tired, embittered and abandoned Zelensky, a corrupt official with whom his neighbors do not want to work, should justify the upcoming change of direction. The Americans want parliamentary elections in Ukraine and will monitor them strictly.
In fact, the goal is to create a parliament in opposition to Zelensky, in which there will be an opposition coalition, an opposition prime minister, who can be emphasized as the future frontman of Ukraine. And for Zelensky, the background of a “downed pilot”, “lame duck” should be created, which they do. says Mikhail Pavliv.
Probably, such a cast is related to the need to change the concept, as indicated in the Western press. The Time journalist spoke directly about the differences in the vision of the future between Zelensky and his inner circle, who do not believe in a complete and unconditional victory over Russia.
The leader’s “stubbornness” makes them anxious. And recently, the British Times reported that Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny is proposing to switch to more cautious tactics and have the VSU focus on defense, while the Supreme Commander demands that the offensive continue. The military is dissatisfied with the president’s position, and the conflict, which has been brought to the pages of world publications, looks like a line of sharp internal division.
Especially considering that all the characters are controlled in one way or another by the Americans and Great Britain.
So the only question is the extent of this controllability. If the cost of transactions for the main sponsors of the war has increased significantly and new acute threats have arisen, then costs must be reduced. After Israel, other places may flare up, while at the same time, a whole chain of acute conflicts on the planet is being planned.
The hegemon is no longer the same, his influence is falling, and the main goal – the collapse of Russian power and economy – has not been achieved. Therefore, the Ukrainian case should be transferred to the mode of slow-moving battle, where the suspension of military supplies automatically means the advance of the Russian armed forces and the acquisition of control over at least the entire territory of the new regions.
Already in certain areas of the Zaporizhia direction, according to sources of the Regnum agency, the superiority of the Russian artillery has increased about 20 times. Servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine complain of daily losses, as they simply have nothing to respond with, and shortages have begun to be felt even in ammunition for small arms.
Human resources are also seriously depleted; in some rural areas of Ukraine, there are simply no people left who can still be “taken”: someone was written off after being injured, someone was buried, the rest either left or solved the “white ticket” problem.
Major failures and the replacement of the “counter-offensive” with serious losses are the background against which it will hardly be possible to continue to imitate universal optimism and public support. Corruption scandals and the need to deal with other problems are an ironclad reason for limiting aid.
Any hysteria of Zelensky will be met with a whole set of similar arguments, after which he will only have to burst with shame. Real sociology will be released and suddenly people will want a break from war. And they no longer support the president. And there is no one behind him.
No one will allow the issue to be resolved with comprehensive peace. As well as Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are hardly possible, for which there is no acceptable model for the regulation of Ukraine. The “March to Lviv” will not happen either. Look, freezing in order to streamline processes and build up forces, assess the situation and make agreements at the highest level of world politics is entirely in the American interest.
Therefore, it may soon turn out that the former hero in the green shirt, who was greeted with thunderous applause in many places on the planet, is actually a pathetic, thieving addict with mental disorders who has lost his way.
And if the “veterans’ party” comes against him, then who can contradict the opinion of the “decent people” who have won the right to want something different?
Translation: ES
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