A significant reduction of Greece’s public debt by almost 30 points by 2029, the International Monetary Fund predicts with its report on global fiscal developments (Fiscal Monitor).
According to forecasts, Greece’s primary surplus will reach 2.1% of GDP in 2024 from 1.9% in 2023 and will remain at this level in the following years until 2029.
The public debt of Greece, in which, as the Fund states, the deferred interest from loans taken by Greece (note: during the period of the memoranda) have been included, is projected to decrease from 168.9% of GDP in 2023 to 159% this year and to decline gradually to 139.4% in 2029, i.e. by almost 30 percentage points.
The overall fiscal balance, which also includes interest on public debt service, is projected to show a deficit of 1% of GDP in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025, which will gradually increase to 1.5% in 2029.
The revenues of the General Government are predicted to be 47.6% of GDP this year, to be maintained at approximately the same levels (47.7%) in 2025 and to gradually decrease to 44.2% in 2029.
For General Government spending, the IMF predicts that it will rise to 48.6% of GDP this year and in 2025 and gradually decline to 45.7% in 2029.
Global public debt at 93% of GDP
According to the IMF report, global public debt is very high and is expected to exceed 100 trillion. dollars or about 93% of global GDP by the end of 2024. It estimates that debt will approach 100% of GDP by 2030, a level that is 10 percentage points higher than in 2019.
Although the picture is not uniform – with public debt expected to stabilize or decline in two-thirds of countries – the IMF estimates that future levels of global debt are likely to be even higher than forecast and that much larger fiscal adjustments are required than the current forecasts for its stabilization or reduction with a high probability.
The report argues that countries should address debt risks head on with carefully designed fiscal policies that protect growth and vulnerable households while benefiting from central bank rate cuts.
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