The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast to 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast last October.
The International Monetary Fund said, in its World Economic Outlook report issued today, that the increase in expectations comes due to the resilience that exceeded expectations in the United States and many emerging market and developing economies, as well as support from public finances in China.
The Fund indicated that despite raising expectations, the forecasts for the period 2024-2025 remain below the historical average level of 3.8 percent for the period 2000-2019, in light of the rise in basic interest rates set by central banks to combat inflation, and the withdrawal of financial support in the context of rising debt that… It negatively affects economic activity, lowering basic productivity growth.
The report pointed out that the inflation rate is declining at a faster pace than expected in most regions, with the severity of problems on the supply side decreasing and monetary policy tightening, as expectations indicate a decline in global overall inflation to 5.8 percent in 2024 and 4.4 percent in 2025. With reduced forecasts for 2025.
The report stated that the possibilities of a violent decline, as well as the balance of risks to global growth, have declined significantly in light of the slowdown in the inflation rate and steady growth, indicating that the slowdown in the inflation rate at a faster pace than expected could lead to further facilitation of financial conditions.
The report explained that, on the negative side of developments, the tightening of monetary conditions may be prolonged if commodity prices rise sharply again as a result of geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions, or core inflation persists for a longer period. Deepening distress in China’s real estate sector, or increasing… Taxes and expenditure cuts that are confusing in any other country lead to growth below the desired level.
The report pointed out that the challenge for policymakers in the near term is to successfully manage the eventual decline in inflation to the target level, calibrate monetary policy in the face of the underlying inflation dynamic, and adjust to take a less stringent stance when wage and price pressures clearly begin to disappear.
The report estimated a slowdown in economic activity for advanced economies from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.5 percent in 2024, to rise by 1.8 percent in 2025, while the report expected emerging market and developing economies to grow by 4.1 percent in 2024, rising to 4.2 percent in 100 in 2025.
2024-01-30 15:41:03
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