The IMF raises estimates for Italy in 2022 but cuts those for 2023. GDP is expected to grow by 3.0% this year, or 0.7 percentage points more than the + 2.3% expected in April . In 2023, growth is expected to slow down to + 0.7%, one percentage point lower than previous forecasts. The Italian acceleration in 2022 is linked to the improvement of tourism and industrial activity. Italy is the only G7 country for which the 2022 estimates are revised upwards, a year in which it is expected to grow more than Germany and France.
It increased lpolitical uncertainty in Italy: this is an important moment for the country because there are numerous reforms and programs under the European plan. We hope that the reforms are made, they would be useful for Italy. Whatever the government in power will be, we hope it will support them. “This was stated by the chief economist of the IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
“With the rise in prices making itself felt on living standards, reducing inflation must be the priority. A tightening of monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs but delaying “an action would only have the consequence of” exacerbating them. “This was stated by the IMF, forecasting inflation at 6.6% this year in advanced economies and at 9, 5% in emerging and developing markets. Price estimates have been revised upwards – by 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively – and the Fund expects prices to remain high for longer than initially anticipated.
The IMF cuts global growth estimates. And he warns: the risks are to the downside and the chances of recession increased. They are “almost 15%” for the G7 economies, or “four times the usual level”, and almost “one in four for Germany”. For the United States, “a technical recession may already have begun”. World GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023 (-0.4 and -0.7 percentage points compared to April). If the risks linked to Ukraine, inflation and Covid materialize, the world could slow down to + 2.6% in 2022 and + 2.0% in 2023, a level that has only been reached five times since 1970.
The IMF revises its growth estimates for the Eurozone and the United States downwards. American GDP is expected to grow this year by 2.3%, or 1.4 percentage points less than the April estimates, and then mark + 1.0% (-1.3 percentage points) in 2023. For the euro area, the Fund expects + 2.6% in 2022 and + 1.2% in 2023, respectively -0.2 and -1.1 percentage points compared to previous estimates. The growth of the United States and Europe could slide close to zero in 2023 if the risks associated with the stop of Russian gas and the surge in inflation materialize.
The IMF cuts growth estimates for Germany, France and Great Britain, and says Berlin has a one in four chance of a recession. German growth was revised to 1.2% in 2022 and + 0.8% in 2023 (respectively -0.9 and -1.9 percentage points compared to previous estimates). The French GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% this year and by 1.0% the next (-0.6 and -0.4 percentage points), while the British GDP by 3.2% in 2022 and by 0. , 5% in 2023 (-0.5 and -0.7 percentage points).
Stop China with Covid lockdowns. After + 8.1% in 2021, Chinese GDP is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2022, or 1.1 percentage points less than previous estimates, and by 4.6% in 2023 (-0.5 ). The Russian economy, on the other hand, will contract less than expected this year, with GDP reaching -6%, or a good 2.5 percentage points more than the April estimates. In 2023, Russia will contract by 3.5%, or 1.2 points more than previous forecasts.
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