The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has presented Korea’s economic growth rate forecast at 1.4% this year.
This is a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the 1.5% forecast in April.
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced today (25th) that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced a revision of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) for April.
The IMF, which projects growth rates in January, April, July, and October each year, projected Korea’s 2023 growth rate at 2.9% in April last year and lowered it five times in a row.
This year, the forecast was lowered to 1.7% in January, 1.5% in April, and 1.4% in July.
The forecast presented by the IMF is lower than the 1.5% presented by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and higher than the 1.3% presented by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
It is the same as the Bank of Korea and the government’s forecast of 1.4%.
Korea’s economic growth rate forecast for next year has maintained its previous forecast of 2.4%.
The global economic growth forecast was raised from 2.8% to 3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the April forecast.
The IMF said, “Financial market instability has eased, as the US debt ceiling negotiations have been concluded and the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse crisis have subsided.”
The forecast for this year’s growth rate by region increased by 0.2 percentage point from 1.3% to 1.5% for the advanced group including Korea.
This is due to the rise in forecasts in the US (0.2% point), UK (0.7% point), Japan (0.1% point), Italy (0.4% point), and Spain (1% point).
In the developed group, countries with lower growth forecasts include Korea and Germany (-0.2 percentage points).
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance analyzed that the IMF reflected that the US, UK and Japan recorded higher-than-expected consumption and investment performance in the first quarter, and that Italy and Spain raised their forecasts according to the recovery of tourism demand.
In the case of Germany, it said that the downgrade appears to be affected by the sluggish manufacturing industry and poor first-quarter results.
The IMF recommended that the world economy “is recovering in the short term, but there are still many risk factors.”
He also stressed that “management and supervision of financial market risks must be strengthened” and “we must secure mid- to long-term fiscal soundness, and realize labor market flexibility and carbon neutrality.”
[사진 출처 : 연합뉴스]
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2023-07-25 13:00:00
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