Ilya Novikov: A Defender, a Fighter, and a Voice for the Future of Russia and Ukraine

Ilya Novikov is a lawyer who defended Navalny’s anti-corruption foundation and the Memorial human rights center in Russian courts. In 2021, he left Moscow and went to live in Kyiv. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Novikov joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). At the end of 2022, the Russian Ministry of Justice included him in the register of “foreign agents”, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs declared him wanted. Konstantin Eggert met and talked with Ilya Novikov in Kiev.

What do you think motivates the Russian elite to keep quiet and not think about the future?

Ilya Novikov: First of all, we should not talk about elite. These are people who are successful under Putin. Now they are all involved in this situation because they participate in the war – in its organization, preparation and conduct – and profit from it. Some are motivated by greed, others by fear. Many think that somehow things will still work out. Those who are smarter understand that this will not happen because it is clear where everything is going. Putin cannot win, he cannot hold on. A month sooner or later, it will all be over.

Putin is already old, he is 70 years old. If you are 70 years old and a democratically elected president, you can resign and live peacefully. But it’s quite another thing if you’re a dictator who has to hold back a whole pack of jackals, because otherwise they themselves will tear you apart or tie a ribbon around you and send you to The Hague to atone for their own guilt. Man is such a creature that is able to convince himself that this is not the end.

What are the real prospects that any of these people will stand trial in The Hague, Putin aside for now?

I. Novikov: The Hague is heavily mythologized. Just because there is a warrant for Putin’s arrest does not specifically mean that he will be extradited. Because if this happens, it will be as a result of a conspiracy. But the far more likely scenario is that he will not survive his defeat in the war. He is more likely to be killed than to be captured alive, for it is easier to kill such a man than to capture him alive.

What is important is that the order issued by the court in The Hague is messing up Putin’s life. It is harder for him to exist when his friends are forced to explain why they invite an international criminal to a summit or make him some kind of proposal. For his friends, the situation has become more difficult, and for his enemies, it is now easier. Therein lies the meaning of this commandment. And as for post-war justice, Hitler, for example, was also not present at the Nuremberg Trials, but does that in any way diminish the significance of the trial?

What will happen to Russia?

I. Novikov: There are several scenarios. After Putin’s fall from power, the local Russian thugs – the ones you call the “elite” – will be enticed to tear up pieces of this large and rotten territory. – Russia. Because everyone wants to be the main bandit in their own country, and not be afraid of going to prison in Lefortovo, just because they didn’t please certain people in Moscow. Such a collapse of Russia, without the need for foreign occupation, is realistic.

If Russia does not fall to pieces, there will be some kind of righting of wrongs in the form of arrests, there will be the most cruel penances and making of pacts. But things can turn around at any moment and a new Putin 2.0 will emerge to take revenge. There are other options that are much worse. For example, if a guy like Prigozhin tries to take Putin’s still warm seat.

Why has not a single Russian oligarch yet made an unequivocal statement that they are breaking with Putin? Why haven’t any of them apologized yet, even insincerely?

I. Novikov: Because of the danger of killing them. I’m sure they all have plans B and C if Putin is gone tomorrow. Everyone has a fueled plane waiting for them somewhere, some sort of secret stash in case everything is taken from them. Those who could have found a way even earlier to crawl away. Those who saw them on February 24, 2022 in Russia are people who did not have the opportunity to do so.

When will the war end and what problems will Ukraine face after its end?

I. Novikov: There will be huge problems. Many people have left the country, millions. Not everyone will return, not everyone has a place to return to. The economy is ruined. If the flow of money stops and the allies stop helping, we will be on the verge of a sharp decline. Much of the infrastructure is destroyed, there are many burned cities and mined areas that need to be cleared. Ukrainian society is experiencing such a painful shock that it simply does not have a complete idea about many things. A big role in this is played by the Ukrainian media, which are not ready to talk to the public about the real problems, because they are afraid that this will undermine the spirit of mobilization. But this painful shock must be taken into account and understood that people are still living in February 2022. After the war, it will be difficult.

What awaits Ukrainians after the war, apart from the obvious economic problems?

I. Novikov: My personal opinion is that there are many things in Ukraine that are frozen for the time that the war continues. Purely and simply do not talk about it, so as not to disturb the people on whom it depends how much money and weapons we will get. But there are obvious things. There is wartime corruption. Corruption has always existed and will be with us for a long time. I don’t think it will get much smaller during the current generation. Some things may be restructured, government procurement may become more transparent, but everyone understands that globally the problem will not disappear.

And my personal pain as a lawyer is the state of the judicial and law enforcement system. In Ukraine, they are still post-Soviet. Earlier there was talk of the “birthmarks of capitalism”. Now these “birthmarks of socialism” cover the judicial system from top to bottom. And it will not be possible to change it quickly, it takes decades.

Author: Konstantin Eggert