IHSG ‘On Fire’ Again, These 8 Big Cap Shares Are the Culprit

The JCI transaction value has reached around IDR 1.4 trillion involving 2.8 billion shares which changed hands 174,794 times. A total of 175 shares appreciated, 243 shares depreciated and 220 shares stagnated.

Sectorally, the infrastructure sector again became the biggest weight for the JCI in session I today, reaching 2.67%.

Source: Refinitiv & RTI

The new and renewable energy issuer belonging to the Prajogo Pangestu conglomerate, namely PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) is back top laggard JCI in session I today reached 19.4 index points.

Not only BREN, another Prajogo issuer which is also the parent of BREN, namely PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) also returned to laggard JCI in session I was 1.6 index points.

JCI continues its weakening that has occurred since last Tuesday’s trading, so that JCI has been corrected for two days.

The JCI correction occurred following the movement of global stock exchanges, especially the United States (US) stock exchange, after the release of the minutes of the US central bank (Federal Reserve/The Fed) meeting.

Although the minutes of the Fed’s meeting or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated there was little possibility of raising interest rates again, but the minutes did not explain the Fed’s plans to cut its benchmark interest rate in the near future.

The FOMC brochure shows that the Fed’s office will be more careful in determining interest rate policy. They also hinted that they will only raise interest rates if efforts to control inflation falter.

Not only that, the rationale will show a slight change from an obsession with controlling inflation to 2% to holding the benchmark interest rate stable, especially if there are no significant surprise price increases.

The Fed indicated that its policy should remain “restrictive” amid concerns that inflation will get higher.

“In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to assess that monetary policy must be kept tight enough so that inflation can return to the Committee’s target of 2% over time,” the minutes read.

In fact, market players saw the FOMC minutes as increasingly confirming their optimism that the Fed would not raise interest rates again. Moreover, US inflation has fallen further to 3.2% (year-on-year/yoy) in October 2023, from 3.7% (yoy) in September 2023.

However, the absence of any statement regarding cutting interest rates disappointed the market.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows market players see a 94% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates at its December 11-12 meeting. This position fell slightly compared to the previous day which reached 100%.

Market players also see a 60% possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates at the April 30-May 1 2024 meeting, this projection is an increase compared to the previous 57%.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH