Berlin In view of a severe recession that has become less likely, fewer German companies fear for their economic existence. Only 4.8 percent saw their continued existence threatened in January, as the Munich Ifo Institute announced on Wednesday in its monthly company survey. In December, the proportion was still 6.3 percent.
“The economic slowdown will probably not leave any major traces in the form of corporate insolvencies,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of the Ifo surveys. For comparison: In June 2020, 21.8 percent of companies felt their existence was threatened due to the corona pandemic.
The relaxation runs through all sectors. The biggest concerns continue to be in retail: 8.3 percent of companies there reported an existential situation, compared to 9.7 percent in December.
“Many retailers are having trouble with the high inflation rates and consumer restraint,” said Wohlrabe. The German Retail Association (HDE) is therefore expecting the largest real drop in sales this year since the global financial crisis of 2009.
Among the service providers, the proportion of companies fearing for their existence fell from 6.4 to 5.2 percent. The hospitality and travel trades are particularly affected. In the manufacturing industry, on the other hand, only 4.0 percent see their economic future at risk (December: 6.5 percent). Many energy-intensive sectors, including the chemical industry, continue to have concerns. There, the proportion is still just over ten percent, according to the Ifo Institute.
Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter due to the impact of the energy crisis, high inflation and supply shortages. The Ifo Institute also expects a minus for the current first quarter.
If there are two negative quarters in a row, there is talk of a recession, which according to most experts could end as early as spring. For the year as a whole, the federal government expects growth of 0.2 percent.
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