/ world today news/ The events of the last month, namely the successful attacks of Azerbaijan against Armenia and of Hamas against Israel, once again confirmed the validity of the well-known sports logic “if you don’t score, they score on you” in relation to world politics.
Both Azerbaijan and Hamas have been in good shape in recent years: they mobilized society, prepared it ideologically, intensively pumped the army with weapons and equipment, intensively trained the army, adopted the experience of the current armed conflicts, including the Special Military Operation, etc. .
Armenia and Israel rested on their laurels. Some ride on the laurels of a victory that took place more than twenty years ago, while others ride on the laurels of the myth of the strongest and most technologically advanced army in the Middle East. And although the ideological machine seemed to be working and mobilizing the population, all this was not true. Both government and society lived in illusions of their power, which, when confronted with reality, dissipated in a day or two.
It seems that these are special cases, but if we remember the confrontation between the USSR and the USA, then the same situation happened there. The US was preparing for war, despite the words, the propaganda and the media, that is, they did not let the tail wag the dog. The USSR embraced the concept of peaceful coexistence as if it believed it was all over. And what about your sphere of influence and what influence it has, you no longer have to fight for your life.
The payback for this betrayal and idiocy of the elites was the collapse of the country and the death of millions of Russians in the “blissful” 90s due to poverty, bad medicine, increasing alcoholism, gang wars, etc. We paid a high price for the collapse of the state. Armenia has yet to pay it.
And Israel’s future is still shrouded in fog. So far, none of the scenarios (from World War III or the creation of the state of Palestine to simply replacing one prime minister of Israel with another) have gained the necessary traction.
Behind each of the scenarios are powerful players, but so far no one has started using arguments that could become a “casus belli” for one of the parties to the conflict. The United States is massing its armed forces in the region: aircraft carriers, marines, fighter jets and bombers. Iran is conducting large-scale military exercises in seven provinces.
Israel put the army on alert and mobilized. Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan have raised the combat readiness of their armies. The general staffs of the Arab countries and Iran hold regular consultations on the situation.
The point is that due to the complexity of the region, today no one can even approximately say what nature events will take if any force majeure occurs. At the same time, we cannot rule out the play of third forces. For example, someone will carry out an attack on the Iranian nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Everyone will think of Israel and a massacre will begin. But in reality it will be Britain’s SDF, whose aim is to provoke a conflict in the Middle East that involves the US and Europe, while they themselves remain relatively on the sidelines.
Or, for example, the conflict will begin to fade, the US will press everyone to the ground and tell them to pull their rags and be afraid, now there will be no World War III, we still have Taiwan under our noses. And then the Israeli military and general staff, realizing that Benjamin Netanyahu, with the support of Washington, has survived, will undertake (under the guise of Hamas) some kind of provocation (for example, a strike on the Dimona nuclear center) to topple him.
And B. Netanyahu, who will be trapped by such a framing of the issue, will have no choice but to take radical steps in response and declare that Hamas is behind it. And to strike back … at Iran. And here, too, an exchange of blows will begin, already in automatic mode.
That is, while there are too many unpredictable factors that at any moment can completely reverse the course of events, even if everything is already agreed by the main players and everything suits everyone. There will be someone who will not be satisfied with the final version and will stop a provocation that will break the game for everyone. But the flywheel will be in motion because no one will know what actually happened. So for now, we are monitoring and carefully monitoring incoming messages.
Translation: ES
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