– If we get it right, the image that the Norwegian economy is surprisingly robust will be reinforced – E24

– From a Norwegian perspective, it is the GDP figures that will be the most exciting to follow in the coming week, says Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets.

On Tuesday, Statistics Norway presents the National Accounts, which provides an overview of developments in the Norwegian economy. Here we get figures on, among other things, gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, exports and imports.

GDP for mainland Norway rose 0.2 per cent in November. After an increase in both October and November, Norges Bank has forecast a decrease of 0.4 per cent in December.

Kjersti Haugland and DNB Markets expect an increase of 0.1 per cent.

– If we are right, then the picture is reinforced that the Norwegian economy is surprisingly robust in the face of increased living costs and higher interest rates, says the chief economist.

Inflation in Norway rose to seven percent in January, which was higher than previously expected. Core inflation, which Norges Bank is most concerned with, came in at a record high of 6.4 per cent.

After strong inflation figures, Nordea Markets turned up its expectations and predicts an interest rate peak of 3.5 per cent.

Haugland says that market participants are very much on the lookout for where the interest rate peak will be, and for potential signals of a turnaround in the economy.

– If we get it wrong, and there is a decline in GDP, then it could be a sign that the turnaround has come, she says.

Key figures before the salary settlement

The Technical Calculation Committee (TBU) will come out on Friday with its preliminary report before the salary settlements. The TBU report should contribute to ensuring that the parties in working life and the authorities have the best possible common understanding of the situation in the Norwegian economy.

– The most tension is linked to the calculation of wage growth for 2022, and which inflation estimate the committee has landed on for 2023. Now they have missed expectations for price growth for a couple of years in a row, but it is something they have not been alone in, says Kjersti Hill Country.

Higher inflation than expected, especially in 2022, meant that purchasing power also weakened more than expected.

Haugland adds that no matter what estimate TBU comes up with for price growth this year, the committee has said that they can revise it closer to the salary settlement.

– The higher the inflation estimate, the higher the list will be to achieve wage growth and what the wage earners will say is a good settlement.

Haugland in DNB Markets points out that there is a possibility that the report will not arrive until Monday, if the selection is not completed by Friday.

The governor’s annual speech

Central Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache gives the annual speech “Economic perspectives” on Thursday evening.

– It is rare for Norges Bank to send out new signals in the form of speeches. They choose as a principle to use interest rate meetings as sources of new signals, says Haugland.

This is in stark contrast to the US central bank, which is constantly making statements and sending signals to the markets, she adds.

Haugland says that the governor of the central bank will mainly speak in long lines. The speech on Thursday will be Ida Wolden Bache’s first annual speech as governor of the central bank.

– It will surprise me if inflation is not high on the list of things she will talk about, says Haugland.

US inflation figures

– Seen from a global perspective, the US inflation figures are the big thing to watch for this week, says the chief economist at DNB Markets.

Inflation in the USA is on the way down, and moderated to 6.5 per cent in December. It is still far above the central bank’s inflation target of two percent. Core inflation, which measures price growth excluding food and energy prices, came in at 5.7 percentage points.

Haugland and DNB expect inflation to fall further to 6.1 per cent in January, while core inflation will fall to 5.3 per cent.

– It is an important number, because now there is a lot of speculation about the way forward, especially after the strong job figures that came last Friday.

The labor market figures for January crushed economists’ expectations. The figures for January show that 517,000 new jobs were created. In advance, the economists expected that 188,000 new jobs would be created outside agriculture in the US.

– The process of bringing inflation down has begun, and it has begun in the goods sector. But it has a long way to go, Powell said during the interview, Fed Governor Jerome Powell said in an interview earlier in February.

Bill Gates to Oslo

The energy conference Oslo Energy Forum also takes place this week. Bill Gates is among the main attractions at the conference, which will be held from 14 to 16 February.

Microsoft founder and UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed is among those who will make a statement on Tuesday. The two will also take part in a panel discussion with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on the same day.

The results season also rolls on at Oslo Børs in the coming week. Norsk Hydro, Orkla, Vår Energi and Norwegian are among those presenting figures for the fourth quarter. The salmon companies Mowi and Grieg Seafood also open their accounting books this week.

The trial against the fraud-accused artist John Hedemark, who has painted under the pseudonym Werner Jensen, begins in the Oslo District Court on Monday.

On Monday, the European Commission will also present economic forecasts for 2023 and 2024.