If they are taken away, it will be a total disaster… The War of the Three Kingdoms has begun

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Did you know that a silent, but risky war is currently taking place between Northeast Asian countries such as Korea, Japan, China, and Taiwan? East Asia’s ‘immigration war’ to attract foreign workers has begun.

On June 14, Japan declared war on Korea in a ‘scramble for foreign workers’. The Japanese National Assembly held a plenary session on this day and passed a revision to the Immigration Control and Refugee Act. The plan was to abolish the technical training system, which had been the channel for accepting foreign workers until now, and establish a new employment training system.

The original purpose of the technical intern system introduced in 1993 was to contribute internationally. It was intended to bring foreign workers to Japan and impart advanced technology, but as Japan’s low birth rate and aging population accelerated, it degenerated into a means of supplying unskilled foreign workers at a low price to small and medium-sized manufacturers and service industries suffering from chronic manpower shortages.

There were many provisions that violated workers’ human rights, such as prohibiting them from changing jobs even if they were treated poorly, and it was criticized as ‘modern slavery’. The Japanese National Assembly clearly stated that the purpose of the training employment system, which replaces the technical intern system, is to ‘secure human resources.’ It was clear that they were prepared to throw away justifications such as international contribution and desperately jump into the competition for manpower.

Taiwan has also reformed its system since June last year to increase the number of low-skilled foreign workers. We plan to attract 80,000 more low-skilled foreign workers by 2030.

Experts analyzed that China, which is facing an imminent collapse of its total fertility rate of 1 person, will soon join the fight. In 2022, China’s fertility rate fell to 1.09. If China follows Japan and Taiwan, the fight for foreign workers will spread into an international war throughout East Asia.

The reason neighboring countries are operating a wartime system one after another is because Korea is quickly dominating the foreign worker market.

Korea increased the cap on low-skilled foreign workers (E-9 visas) from 56,000 in 2020 to 165,000 this year. The upper limit for skilled foreign workers (E-7-4 visas), who have no set period of stay and can bring their families, was increased nearly 60 times from 600 in 2018 to 35,000 this year.

The fact that Korea’s salary level is far ahead of Japan and Taiwan is also making neighboring countries anxious.

According to Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, the average salary of low-skilled foreign workers in Korea converted into yen in 2022 was 271,000 yen (about 2.37 million won). The average salary of low-skilled foreign workers (technical trainees) in Japan and Taiwan was 212,000 yen and 143,000 yen.

As of the end of 2022, there were 1.823 million foreign workers working in Japan. Korea and Taiwan had 843,000 and 707,000 people, respectively. In all three countries, the number of foreign workers has doubled or tripled over the past 10 years.

However, as the manpower shortage due to low birth rate and aging population is becoming more severe, all three countries are thirsty for foreign workers. According to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Japan will need 6.75 million foreign workers to maintain economic activity in 2040. We need to secure 5 million more people than we have now.

The Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea predicted that there would be a manpower shortage of 370,000 people in the domestic industry in 2035. Analysis suggests that Taiwan will also need an additional 400,000 foreign workers in the future.

According to the Asian Development Bank Research Institute, there are a total of 4.64 million foreign workers in 10 emerging Asian countries working in neighboring countries that pay higher wages. Most of the 1.14 million workers in Bangladesh, Asia’s largest exporter of foreign workers, choose Middle Eastern countries.

Korea, Japan, China, and Taiwan will compete for the remaining 3.5 million people. As the birth rate continues to decline, the most obvious solution to the manpower shortage is immigration. However, East Asian countries are generally passive toward immigration.

In the case of Korea and Japan, the public opinion that they are ‘opposed to actively accepting immigration’ remains at 60-70%. For this reason, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are all pursuing passive immigration policies that only recruit essential foreign talent.

Japan has decided to grant more Special Skills No. 2 qualifications to foreign workers who have acquired specialized skills in 11 fields, including construction and shipbuilding, over eight years, including three years of foster employment and five years of Special Skills No. 1 qualifications. The Specified Skills No. 2 qualification allows you to apply for permanent residency with your family, so it can be viewed as de facto immigration.

Until now, only 20 foreign workers have been recognized with Specific Skills No. 2 qualifications. This is assessed as a response to Korea’s significant increase in the cap for skilled foreign workers (E-7-4 visas) to 35,000 this year.

Korea’s foreign worker system is highly regarded internationally, with the International Labor Organization (ILO) evaluating it as “Asia’s advanced migration management system.” This is because in Korea, the government manages the entire process from selecting foreign workers to supporting them during their stay and returning to the country.

In Japan, private brokers connect companies with foreign workers and charge expensive fees. However, in a situation where there is a need to rapidly increase the number of foreign workers, it is pointed out that the current system in which the government takes charge of all processes may not be appropriate.

The explanation is that there is a need for the government to reduce the number of illegal immigrants and manage the country’s image by borrowing the power of the private sector like Japan, while also taking responsibility for supporting the lives of foreign workers. The Low Birth Rate and Aging Society Committee says, “The current policy of sending back foreign workers after using them for up to 10 years should be changed to settling down workers who are absolutely necessary.”

The ‘care sector’ is considered to be the forefront of the battle for foreign workers. Taisei Engineering & Construction, one of Japan’s top five general construction companies, has increased paid leave for nursing care by five days to 15 days since last May. Edion, one of Japan’s top five electronics dealers, expanded the period of use of the shortened nursing work system from three years to ‘until necessary’ starting in April.

Nursing leave, which is still an unfamiliar concept in Korea, is a right guaranteed by law in Japan. The Japanese government enacted the Care Leave Act in 2017, allowing each family member to take up to 5 days of care leave per year (10 days for two or more people).

As Japan, which has been waging a long fight against low birth rates and aging population, ‘balancing work and caregiving’ has become as important a task as ‘balancing work and family’, which Korea is putting a lot of effort into as a countermeasure against low birth rates. Japan recognizes caregiving not as an issue within the home, but as an issue that influences the national economy and industrial activities.

By 2025, all 5.9 million people in Japan’s baby boom generation, the ‘Dankai Generation’, will be aged 75 or older and become senior citizens. The proportion of the elderly aged 65 to 74 years old who is recognized as needing nursing care is 3%, but it rapidly increases to 23% among the elderly aged 65 to 74.

The number of elderly people in need of nursing care is expected to increase from 2.18 million in 2000 to 9 million in 2030. For this reason, Japan needs to secure 2.8 million caregivers by 2040, which is 690,000 more than now.

Balancing work and care is an issue that will determine survival in Japan, where a care crisis is imminent. It is a talent acquisition strategy that believes it is better to create an environment that is compatible with work than to have employees quit their jobs due to the burden of care. According to the Basic Employment Structure Survey conducted by Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications every five years, the number of ‘care-seekers’ who quit their jobs to care for their families in 2022 reached 106,000, exceeding 100,000 for the first time.

The area that the Japanese government is focusing its attention on is foreign workers. Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) in 2008 and is accepting foreign caregivers. Currently, 46,000 foreign caregivers are working in Japan. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare plans to increase the number of foreign caregivers to 220,000.

Taiwan has also introduced a foreign caregiver system. The reason Japan and Taiwan are rushing to secure foreign caregivers is because China’s low birth rate and aging rate are unusual. As the birth rate falls to 1.09 in 2022, China is also expected to face a significant shortage of care workers such as nursing and child care.

‘Population black hole’ Experts worry that East Asia’s nursing resources could dry up if China begins to siphon off foreigners. Last April, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun predicted, “As aging is also accelerating in other Asian countries, including China, an international competition for nursing staff will begin.”

According to the Committee on Low Birth Rate and Aging Society, the number of elderly people in need of nursing care in Korea is expected to exceed 100,000 by 2025. There are already 1 million and 2 million people with dementia and seniors living alone, respectively. According to the Bank of Korea, Korea is expected to have a shortage of 380,000 to 620,000 nursing staff in 2032.

Despite this situation, our country is struggling to secure foreign caregivers. Korea utilizes foreign workers in eight industries, including services, shipbuilding, mining, and forestry. However, the nursing field is excluded.

Reporter Jeong Young-hyo [email protected]