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– The leaders of GERB Boyko Borisov and “continue the change” Kiril Petkov
GERB is the first political force and has maintained its electoral support since April, but with a very small margin it is followed by “We continue the change”, which, however, increases its percentage. “Vazrazhdane” and “There is such a people” are losing the sympathy of the voters at the expense of the new player on the political scene, “Bulgarian Rise”, which gathered more than 5 percent of support immediately after the official establishment of the project. This is according to the data from a nationally representative survey by the “Alpha Research” agency.
In the survey barely 38% answered that they are willing to participate in the possible early elections. It was conducted in the period June 25 – July 1, 2022, among 1017 adult citizens from all over the country, through a direct standardized interview with tablets. A two-level sample stratified by region and type of settlement was used, with a quota for gender, age, and education.
The data shows that if the election is now, there would once again be a seven-party parliament, which will probably also mean a coalition government formula. But the party of Slavi Trifonov will be outside it, while that of Stefan Yanev will enter.
Slavi Trifonov’s sudden withdrawal of the ministers of “There is such a people” and the subsequent overthrow of the speaker of the parliament Nikola Minchev, the vote of no confidence in the government, the protests in defense of the government, the removal of the veto for the start of negotiations of North Macedonia with the EU, the expulsion of 70 diplomats and employees of the Russian embassy, the turning of the parliamentary roulette with Asen Vassilev as the candidate for Prime Minister of “We continue the change” are the context that the agency outlines as having influenced the data on electoral attitudes and evaluations.
“Alpha Research” outlines the following trends – the conclusions below are a quote from their analysis:
– Convergence of electoral support between “We continue the change” and GERB. The mobilization of the sympathizers of “We continue the change”, as a reaction mainly against the ousting of Nikola Minchev from the post of president and subsequently – of the government, leads to overcoming the decline in support registered in previous surveys and partially regaining positions. With an increase of 2 points compared to April and a 20.2% potential vote, “We continue the change” remains just over a percentage point behind GERB (21.5%). “We continue the change” achieves growth in the capital and several large cities, GERB maintains its support in smaller regional centers and settlements.
Caused by the political crisis “There is such a people” marks a new loss of voters and in elections today it would remain below the parliamentary line (3.3%). “Vazrazhdane” stops its rise, both due to the exacerbation of the GERB – “We continue the change” confrontation, which leaves them aside from the leading political intrigue, and due to the competition in the left-Russophile space with the BSP and the new party of Stefan Yanev.
Kostadinov’s party remains with 8% support. Kornelia Ninova’s skilful maneuvering between participation in management and “red lines” has managed to stabilize the electoral positions of the left (11.5%) for the time being, but the dynamics in this sector are too strong.
“Bulgarian Rise” started with just over 5% support and only the coming months will show how the votes will be distributed between it, the BSP and “Vazrazhdane”.
“Democratic Bulgaria” also retains its voters in Sofia and large urban centers, which gives it 7.1% of the potential vote.
– Strongly polarized public opinion between the “new government in the current parliament” option (49.5%) and early elections (46.7%). About three-quarters of supporters of the resigned government, as well as people without clear political preferences, are “in favor” of forming a new government, while supporters of opposition parties are “in favor” of early elections.
More about the attitudes of the cabinet or elections and the role of the president – here
– Polarization also along the axis of “which governing coalition would be better able to manage the country”. Predominant preferences for a coalition around “We continue the change” (31.9%).
At the same time, however, GERB gradually managed to get out of isolation – only 6 percent less (25.2%) believe that Borisov’s party would have coped more successfully in the current situation. Just over 20% would prefer a completely different alternative. Voters who prioritize economic problems and their material status more often choose a coalition around GERB, and those who emphasize corruption and its impact on economic processes – a coalition around “We continue the change”, write from “Alpha Research”.
Other data presented by the agency showed that there was a “wavering support for the president” and that although he remained the most approved politician, his approval rating fell by 8 points to 43% in June. There is also a decline in the confidence in Kostadin Kostadinov and Slavi Trifonov.
The loss of the Bulgarian veto over the start of negotiations between North Macedonia and the EU does not lead to the public upheavals predicted by many analysts, Alfa Research also points out. The research shows that after the vote in the parliament of the so-called “French proposal” 42% of respondents approve of lifting the veto against 53% who disapprove.
“This sharp change compared to the sentiments of a few months ago clearly shows that responsible political leadership is able to bring about reassurance in society and an evolution of public attitudes,” the agency commented.
For the approval and decline in trust in other leaders – read here
Will there be a government with the mandate of “Continuing the change” read here.
April survey results read here.
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