The situation at the border with Ukraine is very tense, and Russia can launch an attack on Ukraine at any time, was the message from the White House on Tuesday.
– 14,000 have died in only a small corner of Ukraine so far in the conflict (since 2014, journ. Note), says Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College to TV 2.
– If Russia goes for a full-scale attack, then there will be a major war. It will be very, very bloody, says Karlsen.
– RUSSIAN FORCES: A Russian soldier participates in an exercise in Kadamovskiy in the Rostov region of Russia. The picture is from December 14, 2021. Photo: AP
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Karlsen is the head teacher of strategic communication at the Norwegian Defense College and has no doubt that many will lose their lives if Russia goes to great war.
– We are talking about cities with hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of inhabitants. It will be a bloodbath if they really do, he says.
However, Karlsen emphasizes that he believes a major invasion is the least likely to happen. However, he says there is another threat that is perhaps all the more real.
Fare for cyberangrep
Russia has for many years carried out major cyber attacks, and Karlsen says that if Russia wants to attack, they will carry out more cyber attacks, propaganda and possibly also sabotage against Ukraine.
– They will not be able to provide services in society, and that will undermine trust in the authorities in Ukraine, says Karlsen.
He believes the cyber attacks could be a pretext to launch a possible attack.
Last week was Ukrainian authorities exposed for a comprehensive hacker attack. Ukrainian authorities claim they can prove that Russia is behind it, while Russia, for its part, denies the allegations.
– WARNING ABOUT CYBER ATTACKS: Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen says that society must be aware of cyber attacks. Photo: The Norwegian Defense College.
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Can be a threat to Norway
Karlsen is clear that cyber attacks are also a threat to Norway.
– We have had a quadrupling of ransomware virus attacks in the last year alone, and if we get a serious conflict, I think we must take hybrid attacks into account.
– If the rest of society is not prepared for hybrid attacks, then they should be immediately, the lieutenant colonel states.
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has stated that he believes Norway must take in that hybrid attacks are a real new societal threat.
– What should Norway do, if Russia goes to war?
– Right now, NATO has not asked us to send forces. The most important thing we must do is take care of the High North and ensure that we have sufficient forces there, says Karlsen and emphasizes that what is important now is that Norway is aware of the danger of cyber attacks.
The West will respond with serious financial and political sanctions against Russia, if they choose to invade Ukraine. It is also one of the reasons why Karlsen warns of possible hybrid attacks.
– UKRAINIAN FORCES: Forces from the Ukrainian Armed Forces participate in an exercise near Kiev in Ukraine. Photo taken December 25, 2021. Photo: SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP
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– If we react with sanctions, Russia can try to deter us. That is why I say that we must also be prepared for computer attacks and other hybrid threats. This can be much less pleasant than we like to think, says Karlsen.
– It’s very exciting
On Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with his US counterpart, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Geneva to discuss the situation.
– RUSSIAN SOLDIERS: Forces from the Russian Armed Forces are training in Kadamovskiy in the Rostov region of Russia. The photo was taken on December 14, 2021. Photo: AP
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– It’s very exciting now. But we do not know what Russia really wants, whether they want to attack or whether it is a brutal form of negotiation policy, and we do not know until it is too late, says Karlsen.
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