Historian Stephen Kotkin in his wonderful book “Stalin” announced his intention to write “World History from Stalin’s Desk”. From this perspective, what is the office of Russian President Vladimir Putin thinking these days? Specifically, if Putin wins the war in Ukraine, what will he do next?
The view from Putin’s office today is generally positive. This was reflected in Putin’s recent confident, energetic – even arrogant – conversation with Russia’s young entrepreneurs and scientists on June 9. Russia now controls nearly 20 percent of Ukraine, up from 7.2 percent before the February invasion. Putin’s approval rating is 83 percent, the highest since July 2017, according to the independent Levada Center. The Russian currency, the ruble, is currently stronger than at any time since February 2020.
More importantly, there appears to be no viable alternative to Putin as Russia’s leader, at least in the near term. In the eyes of the Russian public, there is no one who will make Russia stronger. Putin’s potential opponents are either dead, imprisoned, exiled or silenced. The moment of maximum danger of the Putin era seems to be over.
Of course, looking at Putin’s desk, Russia is still a troubled place and will be for some time. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia’s economy is It is expected to shrink by 8.5 percent in 2022, while consumer prices will increase by 21.3%. and overtake Russia deaths from COVID-19 This is the highest level in any major economy, creating uncertainty and pressure on its public.
But overall, the view from Putin’s office is that it’s time to ask: what next?
Like other oligarchs, Putin is the ultimate opportunist and unlikely to make any visible moves. However, three broad trends can emerge from Putin’s office: the next adventure, an alternative to the UN, and securing a domestic legacy.
Putin’s next adventure may be an invasion of another neighboring country. He is unlikely to choose to invade NATO member states such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, the latter of which has a large Russian-speaking population. And Putin’s big gain from expanding Russia’s occupation of Georgia or Moldova.
Alternatively, in line with his stated intention to rally on Russian soil, Putin’s next move could be to the south and east, Kazakhstan. Currently, 3.8 million Russian speakers live there, which is about 21 percent of the population. Russia has always had territorial claims in northern Kazakhstan, and Cossacks established settlements as early as 1584. The accusations were made by Russia When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, this was reflected in the Russian separatist conspiracy that emerged in the Urals (Uralsk) and Oskamen (Ust-Kamenogorsk) in northern Kazakhstan in the 1990s. The possibility of a Russian military invasion of Kazakhstan became a reality in January 2022, when Russian forces under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) briefly entered the country in response to anti-government unrest. Kazakhstan’s 39,000 active-duty military will not pose much of a challenge even to Russia’s dwindling military.
Or maybe Putin will then move into the architecture of the emerging new international order. Considering the United Nations (UN) as the main supranational symbol of the Western international system after World War II, he could envision a new organizational symbol as an alternative to the United Nations. This new organization could have its roots in Eurasia. One could imagine integration, for example, between the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO (both led by Russia) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (led by China). Or the architecture of the new system could be more global, depending on the organizational structure of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Or maybe a whole new organization is needed. Whatever ends up, according to Putin’s office, the initiative will have one godfather: Putin. He will be present in the creation of the new order.
Or perhaps Putin’s next step is securing his domestic legacy. The main motive here will be to carefully select and prepare a possible successor who can build on his achievements. Given Putin’s kinship and familiarity with Peter the Great, the idea would be to find a successor for Putin like Catherine the Great and less like her husband, the ineffectual Peter III. Current prime minister Mikhail Mishustin or fellow oligarch Yuriy Kovalchuk are likely successors, although the war in Ukraine is dynamically shuffling and changing the field of candidates.
Another way Putin could secure his domestic legacy is to build a new Russian capital outside the Ural Mountains, far from Western military threats and closer to the center of Eurasia. The relocation of some jobs to cities such as Samara (formerly Kuibyshev, the alternative capital of the Soviet Union if Moscow fell to the Nazis), Novosibirsk or Vladivostok would create significant new local economic activity and parallel to the relocation of Peter the Great himself from the Russian capital from Moscow to St. Petersburg in 1712.
Regardless of which direction he goes, it is becoming increasingly clear to Putin that Russia will eventually be able to claim some kind of victory in Ukraine. He seems willing to go further and rely more on the uncertainty of his actions. Uncertainty creates new opportunities for him and Russia. What’s next? More change, not less.
David Lingelbach is a professor of entrepreneurship at the University of Baltimore. He lived and worked in Russia from 1994 to 1999, serving as president of Bank of America Russia and working with Vladimir Putin. He is writing a book about oligarchs, which he has studied for more than a quarter of a century.
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