While Ukrainians and Russians are fighting on the ground, the Russian economy is being hit hard by Western sanctions. At 2 pm today, Russian President Vladimir Putin will give what the Russian media claims is “An extremely important speech” at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), where foreign politicians and business leaders gather.
The gas pipeline will be read as a political signal
The Chinese envoy is among those who, according to the president’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, get a more important place in the hall when other countries are absent due to the war. And where the great power China stands, is important for the countries gathered at the conference.
– Researcher Stein Tønnesson is an Asian researcher at the Peace Research Institute PRIO. Photos taken during Arendalsuka 2018. This year he will take the trip again – this time to talk about the relationship between China and Russia. Photo: Terje Pedersen
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– One thing you can be aware of is whether Putin mentions a new gas pipeline to China, says Stein Tønnesson to TV 2.
He is an Asian researcher at the Institute for Peace Research (PRIO). Together with the researcher Pavel Baev, he has together written several articles about the partnership between the two countries. He believes the leaders have much in common, and the relationship between the heads of state in the two great powers has never been as good as between these two.
But China has also criticized Russia for violating the UN ban on aggression. If Putin can talk about concrete plans for a new gas pipeline to China, it will be an important signal.
– It will take at least ten years to build it. While the oil that Russia can no longer sell in Europe can be transported by tanker, the gas needs a different logistics, Tønnesson explains.
– President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, like many of the countries represented in St. Petersburg, are most afraid of a security policy threat from the United States. Photo: Ng Han Guan
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When Putin takes the floor today, such a plan for a future gas export will be a signal that business leaders and politicians in the House read a lot into. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have in all probability had their talks in advance.
– The two talk together behind the scenes. I think it is likely that Putin told about the invasion plans to his friend and colleague Xi Jinping already when they met during the Olympics in Beijing, Tønnesson says.
China wants peace
But Tønnesson is reasonably sure that there was another scenario the Russian president presented to the Chinese president. A quick operation to secure Russian interests – not a war over a hundred days long. Putin did not envision that either.
– Now China wants Russia to make peace in the world economy and in the service of world peace. If Putin says he wants to advocate for peace for the world economy and for world peace, he is under the influence of China, Tønnesson says.
Under the influence? Do you think that they are putting pressure on him?
– I want to use the word influence, because pressure is not a correct word to use when it takes place between friends.
And Tønnesson describes the relationship between the two authoritarian leaders as a friendship. He believes they talk together without others present, and that the two authoritarian leaders have much in common.
– But Putin is not open to a peace Ukraine can accept. What will show that he is influenced by China is at best that he shows a will for peace. In addition, a gas pipeline will show that he has established a close collaboration.
Goes out loud before the speech
Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has spoken out in advance of the speech to emphasize that Putin has something very important to say. Peskov has spoken to the Russian news agency TASS. Since February, the agency has been excluded from the European Alliance of News Agencies since February, as are several other Russian news sources considered to be heavily influenced by the Kremlin.
To them, Peskov states that the extremely important speech will deal with the world economy, the rising food prices, and how the sanctions have affected the Russian economy.
– Putin can also highlight some positive aspects of the Russian economy in his speech, Tønnesson says.
He points out that the ruble is strong, despite the sanctions, and Russian oil that is no longer accepted in Europe can be sold in Asia. Arms exports also form an important part of Russian exports, and many of those present in St. Petersburg still buy weapons from Russia.
Sees the United States as a threat
Although many countries are absent, Asian countries and former Soviet republics are strongly represented at the conference. According to Russian media, all the former Soviet republics are represented.
– Participants in the SPIEF Economic Forum in St. Petersburg on Friday 17 June. The logo of the Russian prosecution appears in the background, with the two-headed Russian eagle. Photo: Maxim Shemetov / Reuters / NTB
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– There are many who are skeptical of the war, but we must not forget that the view of the United States is common to China, Russia and several of the major important countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
According to Tønnesson, China fears that the United States wants to do the same in its immediate areas as it does in Ukraine: by supplying Zelensky and the Ukrainians with weapons, they are building a dangerous opponent for Putin right on the border with Russia.
– China and several of the other chargers see the United States as a player that wants to do the same in their immediate areas. Therefore, they absolutely do not want the United States to win a proxy war against Russia.
Tension in the hall
So when Putin gives his speech in St. Petersburg, it is not the West he is addressing.
– Putin wants to influence China to give them financial support, Tønnesson explains.
But despite the leadership friendship, Tønnesson believes China is skeptical about sending large investments into the Russian economy.
– While the conference is taking place in St. Petersburg, the war in eastern Ukraine continues in full force. If Putin is to show the will to peace as China wants in his speech, it is not by stepping down the war effort. Photo: Aris Messinis / Reuters / NTB
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– It is too one-sided, it is not a safe investment, they are not willing to give away money.
The good relationship between the two leaders nevertheless indicates that communication is still in place. The Central Asian countries in particular will weigh Putin’s words to see if he and the great power China can have reached an agreement. A plan for a gas pipeline is one such signal.
Must convince
In the background, the war is raging in Ukraine. The conference began on June 15, and on the same day, Russian troops attacked the state of Luhansk from nine sides at the same time, according to Ukrainian Military Commander Valery Zaluzhuny. Russia already controls large parts of the Donbas and Luhansk.
What can Putin say to business leaders about the world economy that will impress them, if there is no talk of peace or an explicit economic alliance with China?
– It had to be to convince that they are doing well, and that the country has an economy that can be invested in despite the western sanctions. To a certain extent, he is right.
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