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Brief information about the operational situation for Bulgaria regarding the COVID-19 pandemic for November 3, 2021, submitted by Nikolay Vitanov on Facebook:
“This information is for people who want to know what I expect to happen with the pandemic in the coming days. The information is as it comes out of computers. For better or worse, it’s coming out, I’m writing to you.
So, what happened yesterday. 5863 cases, much less than the peak value of 6816 a week ago. In other words – secondary peak – October. You will say that we, who read these analyzes regularly, know that this will be the case since the beginning of September. So, the prognosis was good. Let us recall, however, what a roar there was against this prognosis.
What else do we have – an overloaded health care system that is trying to hold back, active cases over 100,000, high mortality. In two words – the Valley of Crying. But we are still not surprised – you will say. You are not, yes, you are not. The roaring haters who wrapped the moon around me are surprised by my prognosis for high mortality. Well, it’s high, it will be high in the coming days.
Now the good news. The basic reproductive number has been below 1.3 for four days now. This morning is 1.214. The scope of the infection is expanding, but it is no longer exponential. You already know that when they ask me if the health care system will hold up, I answer: it will hold. Holding will mean that the ship of the health system, figuratively speaking, will take the turn at Kamen Bryag, but will hang some rocks.
The active cases will exceed 110,000 and will target 115,000. You know that the health care system is in a state of technical and staff overload. Another positive news is that the indicators characterizing the spread of the infection have stopped growing. They march on the spot. This suggests that the strength of diffuse propagation, although great, has stopped growing. This indicates that the peak values for the secondary peak of this wave have been reached (what follows after the secondary peak is a separate issue). Marching on the spot means that the number of new cases will remain high. This is not good.
Mortality statistics (data from the site coronavirus.bg)
Died at the end of October – 23,999
Died for November 20201 – 24 454
Died November 2021 – 455 – (for 2 days)
Died for November 2020 – 2560
Here more comments, returning from abroad on November 14-15. The cards follow. First, the risk map according to the plan of the Ministry of Health. The situation remains complicated – 25 districts are at level 4, to the two that are not, Targovishte was added, but during the week this may change. As you can see, Kardzhali is expected to change color. What to write about the situation – measures – check, compliance and total lockdown – no.
The fire is burning with great force, but there is no longer anything to keep it burning at 7,000 new cases a day. The trend of increasing cases is reversed without a total lockdown.
On the forecast map for the 14-day morbidity, things are dead. The super-red zone is not expanding, but because large areas such as Sofia and Varna are in it, we can reach 1,000 per 100,000 for the whole country. For this, it will be enough for Plovdiv to drip into the super-dark red zone. The word capical is used on purpose to keep you awake.
If I wanted to put you to sleep, I would start telling you how Plovdiv can change the trajectory of the system in the phase space and direct it to the pool of attraction of the attractor 1000 to 100 000 and a bifurcation will occur, which will change the state of the whole system. although parts of it are outside the pool of attraction. In folk words – to drip the situation there. The risk map according to our methodology is purple. This shows that we should not relax.
In short – the situation continues to be unpleasant. Do what you want, go where you want. But stay away from others and don’t sit too long in places where there are a lot of people. Minimize the possibility of someone infecting you – stay away from places of mass gatherings. When you get home, wash your hands thoroughly. Hey, elementary things.
Anyone who wants can get vaccinated (but not necessarily).
Beware.
I’m abroad next week. Which means I won’t write. I leave you in the hands of other prognosticators.
So as not to take much to scare you, let me remind you – we are in the Valley of Crying, but worse than it is, it will be difficult until I return after 10 days. It can be better – high probability, worse – the probability is small.
This is for today. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. ”
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