/ world in the present day information/ The direct clashes between Anton Hekimyan and Vasil Terziev are boring and banal, and after the top you get the sensation that just one particular person is concerned in them. On the Web, the 2 run a mirror marketing campaign with equivalent and comparable messages, accompanied by the identical pictures of the candidates in shirts amongst individuals from the neighborhood or at enterprise conferences. Common discuss prevails, however most of all there’s a feeling that there is no such thing as a intrigue on this contest, and the winner is already identified. Each candidates waste loads of time and vitality explaining themselves about extraneous issues. Hekimyan – why did he leap from journalism to politics, and Terziev – why the largest anti-communists and purveyors of household ties, raised a descendant of DS and a nephew of Petar Mladenov with the tanks.
In fact, the assaults towards Anton Hekimyan don’t honor the journalists of the foremost tv stations. I’ve the sensation that they’re killing their very own complexes by means of them. Everybody who works in them, with out exception, is on the display screen as a result of they serve the authorities, not as a result of they’re journalists within the true sense of the phrase. And this has been the case for not less than 20 years. It’s ridiculous to accuse Hekimyan of serving Boyko Borisov and GERB, as a result of in addition they served Borisov and GERB once they had been in energy, after which circled and began serving “Change”. For 2 years, bTV has been doing aggressive PR for Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev, which prices a whole bunch of thousands and thousands whether it is executed in line with the foundations of business promoting and is hardly free. Hekimyan’s least drawback is that the BTV newsroom (which, by the best way, labored towards GERB for the final two years), turned a GERB candidate.
The state of affairs is analogous with Vasil Terziev, who has to elucidate himself about his mom, father and grandfathers on each DS strains. That and for Petar Mladenov and the road “It is best for the tanks to return” addressed to the Democrats who’re nominating him for mayor in the present day. The questions shouldn’t be addressed to him, however to Atanas Atanasov, Hristo Ivanov, Kiril Petkov, Asen Vassilev and their voters, who get up and go to mattress with DS and communism on their lips and who fairly critically suppose that the communists and the USSR are the reason for all misfortunes in Bulgaria. To appoint such a candidate is a mockery of themselves. Terziev is a businessman with clear political and financial objectives and he would not care who will assist him obtain them. If BSP had higher probabilities in Sofia, he would have run for workplace from there and nobody would have requested him about DS.
The issue of each foremost contenders is that they clearly don’t perceive something in regards to the administration of Sofia, and their candidacies are the results of fully completely different political calculations. It is usually an enormous drawback that they converse boringly – solely clichés and banalities with out an oz. of charisma. An meeting pretending to not be an meeting. And that is the place the intrigue is available in, as a result of there’s, albeit not an enormous, chance of shock. For my part, it may be submitted by Vanya Grigorova. Her success movies are the freshest of a number of campaigns to this point, she’s fairly and speaks confidently, exuding expertise and a drive to win. It has a transparent message towards the established order that dominated our capital for 33 years. It’s positioned categorically towards the meeting and is recognizable. The latter is the primary shortcoming of “Vazrazhdane” candidate Deyan Nikolov, who is clearly an honest and severe particular person, however entered the race too late and many citizens is not going to be taught his identify till election day.
That is the place to elucidate one thing that’s necessary after we discuss elections. The steadiness between majoritarian and proportional ingredient may be very skinny. The respective candidates’ likelihood is judged first on the idea of stable voters, and their first main hurdle is reaching a runoff. Whoever ranks third is eradicated from the sport. However, if he was third within the preliminary polls, and seems to be second and goes to a runoff – he has each probability of successful.
As well as, there was a steady vote in Sofia for 30 years and a left-wing candidate has by no means received right here, which doesn’t imply that it’ll not occur sooner or later. Now’s the time to open the bracket for Vili Lilkov, who’s probably the most ready for mayor of Sofia, however the self-delusion of the darkish blues that he can attain a runoff is touching. His candidacy was initiated by GERB as a way to cut up votes from Terziev, which he’ll do with the exhausting Kostovist citizens. With Terziev’s disastrous efficiency, Vili might attain 6-7%, however that is it.
With a purpose to assess the possibilities of the primary contenders, it’s good to see how the individuals of Sofia voted within the final parliamentary elections in April, i.e. simply half a 12 months in the past.
192,000 individuals voted for PP-DB.
For GERD – 121,000
For “Revival” – 68,000
For BSP – 34,000
It’s apparent that the runoff will probably be between Vasil Terziev and Anton Hekimyan. Vanya Grigorova begins from a really low base, which she has to leap over a number of occasions. It is not not possible, nevertheless it’s very troublesome. On this case, there’s excellent news for her – the primary two candidates are such that it’s troublesome to mobilize the exhausting cores of the events that nominated them.
Neither the herbalists acknowledge Hekimyan as theirs, nor the city proper is fascinated by Vasil Terziev’s DS. There could also be an ebb, however as large as it’s, will probably be very troublesome for Grigorova to succeed in a battle for the highest spot. As well as, a lot of her potential voters will vote for “Vazrazhdane”, which is able to current surprises in lots of locations in Bulgaria, however fairly as municipal lists, not as mayors. In Sofia, they may have a stable group within the municipal council.
And right here the anti-status quo has an excellent probability if Kostadin Kostadinov decides on a non-standard political transfer. If “Vazrazhdane” withdraws the candidacy of Deyan Nikolov and calls on its sympathizers to vote for Vanya Grigorova as mayor, however for “Vazrazhdane”‘s record of municipal councilors, there’s each probability that the fitting will lose Sofia for the primary time in 30 years. If Vanya Grigorova goes to the runoff towards Vasil Terziev, she’s going to beat him, as a result of she’s going to mobilize all the protest vote towards “Promyanata”, and the grassroots is not going to help Terziev.
It is vitally unlikely that what I’ve described as a situation will occur. Kostadinov is now imposing “Vazrazhdane” as a celebration on the native stage and is unlikely to surrender his candidate in favor of Grigorova, however I might do it in his place, as a result of such a clear alternative and one with a broad political perspective is never discovered. If Vanya Grigorova and “Vazrazhdane” win Sofia, it’s going to completely change all the political image in Bulgaria, and the Euro-Atlantic coalition, which has no various, will go down the drain. Nonetheless, these are solely hypotheses that would develop into actuality with non-standard and daring political conduct.
For now, it appears extra seemingly that Vasil Terziev will develop into the mayor of Sofia, and solely as a result of Boyko Borisov determined to present it to him as a present, however I’ve already written in regards to the latter in ample element.
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