The economic recovery this year will lead to the second highest increase in CO2 emissions worldwide this year. That is predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the Global Energy Review 2021. The organization expects an increase of nearly five percent in CO2 emissions.
In the past year, emissions decreased significantly, when a large part of production in the world came to a standstill as a result of the corona pandemic. The main cause of the expected increase in CO2 emissions is the use of coal for electricity generation. The use of this increases by 4.5 percent. This means that the use is above the level before the corona crisis.
80 percent of the increase in coal use takes place in Asia, led by China (50 percent). The use of coal is also increasing in Europe and the United States, but here it will not exceed the amounts in 2019, the IEA thinks.
‘Green recovery’
Politicians have been talking about a “green recovery” of the economy after the corona pandemic for a year, but that does not seem to be the case for now. “This is a direct warning that the economic recovery is far from sustainable for the climate,” says IEA director Fatih Birol: “If governments around the world do not quickly come up with measures to reduce emissions, the situation will worsen even further next year.”
Birol calls on world leaders to initiate additional policies to reduce CO2 emissions at a summit with US President Biden this Friday.
Sun and wind
While the use of coal is increasing, at the same time the share of sustainably generated electricity in the energy mix is increasing by eight percent. Solar and wind thus provide more than half of the increase in the demand for electricity.
Thirty percent of the energy that will be used worldwide this year is sustainable, the IEA expects. That is an increase of three percent compared to 2019. China is also playing the leading role in the increase in renewable energy. The country is likely to provide nearly half of the increase in renewable electricity, followed by the United States, Europe and India.
Less oil
Despite the economic recovery, the demand for oil is lagging behind and is three percent below the level of 2019. In road transport, the demand for oil is not expected to recover until the end of this year.
This will probably take much longer for aviation. The IEA expects kerosene demand to be still 20 percent below 2019 levels by the end of this year. A full recovery in the demand for oil would lead to an additional 1.5 percent increase in CO2 emissions.
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