Just three years ago, the British mathematician was still unable to predict a global pandemic and a war in Europe. Therefore, the German edition of the book, which was published in English in 2019, has been supplemented by a current foreword by Ian Stewart on Covid-19, in which he presents the modern methods intended to simulate the spread of diseases as realistically as possible.
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Overall, his book takes a look back at the strategies with which man has tried to tame chance in the course of his existence.
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Six Ages of Uncertainty
He identifies six ages of uncertainty, in which chaos was initially supposed to be tamed by belief in gods and reading guts, until increasingly sophisticated mathematical methods helped to estimate the probabilities and risks of various events.
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Whether gambling, the weather, the development of the financial markets or the processes in the atom – many systems develop according to seemingly random patterns. Ian Stewart examines the opportunities in various areas in detail. His calculations make it clear under which conditions more or less reliable predictions can be made and where the pitfalls of some risk assessments lie.
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Generally understandable non-fiction book
The high precision of his descriptions and derivations is quite remarkable for a generally understandable non-fiction book. A certain intrepidity towards mathematical technical vocabulary is definitely an advantage for reading.
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Nevertheless, Ian Stewart has not written a study book, but presented an illuminating overview of the history and possibilities of probability theory. In it he dedicates himself to the average person as well as the butterfly effect and the validity of medical studies, the pioneers of probability calculation as well as modern theoretical approaches.
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Exciting insights into the quantum world
His remarks on the unpredictable nature of the quantum world are exciting and a bit unorthodox: Are the processes in the atom really random or is there a hidden deterministic mechanism that has so far eluded our understanding? Although the current interpretation denies this, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out.
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The fact that he not only treats uncertainty as a problem, but also considers useful aspects of chance rounds off his book.
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The desire to know the future in order to be able to plan one’s own life better will still not come true. But after reading Ian Stewart’s “Weather, Viruses and Probability” one at least understands why predictability is so limited.
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